Will Zootopia 2 Stampede Past $1 Billion at the Box Office? The Odds Behind Disney’s Next Big Bet

After a bruising October, the box office is poised to roar back as Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 hit theaters, with Zootopia 2 tracking for a mammoth $122–$125 million five-day debut.

After a soft October, the box office looks ready to snap back thanks to a one-two punch: 'Wicked: For Good' and Disney's 'Zootopia 2'. The latter, in particular, is shaping up to be a Thanksgiving monster.

'Zootopia 2' is tracking huge for Thanksgiving

Early projections have the sequel pulling in a hefty extended opening. Some trackers are calling for about $125 million over the five-day Thanksgiving frame (Wednesday through Sunday). Others say the three-day alone could flirt with $122 million, which only boosts the five-day expectations if that holds. That three-day figure is coming from places like Box Office Theory, and yes, the range is wide this far out, but the direction is obvious: big.

Why a billion feels very much in play

We just watched several 2025 tentpoles roar out of the gate and still stall before the $1 billion line. 'A Minecraft Movie' had a big opening and still came up short. The difference-maker for 'Zootopia 2' might be the market that used to supercharge Hollywood totals: China.

Pre-COVID, franchises from 'Fast & Furious' to the MCU routinely leaned on China for a sizable slice of their worldwide haul. That changed post-COVID, and the shift showed up in 2025 with titles like 'The Fast & Furious: First Steps' and 'Superman'. Even so, 'Zootopia 2' is bucking the trend a bit. Think 'Avatar: The Way of Water' style potential. Pre-sales in China have reportedly topped $16 million already, and while that number is coming from Reddit chatter, it lines up with the bullish buzz.

• Five-day Thanksgiving projection: around $125M; three-day high end: about $122M (per box office trackers including Box Office Theory)
• China could be the swing: reported pre-sales north of $16M (via Reddit)
• 'Moana 2' hit $1B with middling reviews; 'Zootopia 2' is tracking behind that opening but still looks like a billion-dollar contender
• Projected to be 2025's biggest Hollywood grosser, with the main threat being James Cameron's 'Avatar: Fire & Ash'
• Key caveat: 'Fire & Ash' lands mid-December, so if you only count 2025 grosses, 'Zootopia 2' has a clean runway

About that 'BvS' warning

One note of caution in the forecasting world: the 'BvS situation' — massive launch, sharp drop — which sank 'Batman v Superman' after its opening flare-up. Given the family-demo legs typical over the holidays (and how the first 'Zootopia' played), that kind of cliff drop feels unlikely here, but it is the boogeyman people bring up when a three-day number looks huge.

The filmmakers say the sequel is going for the heart

Disney sequels can outgross the originals and still get dinged by critics — 'Frozen 2' and 'Moana 2' both wore that label. The 'Zootopia 2' team seems very aware of that precedent and is promising something that doesn’t just recycle the bits that worked.

Directors Jared Bush and Byron Howard say they know the comedy was a big part of what turned the first movie into a global hit. This time, they want to keep the jokes and push harder on the emotional side. Howard put it plainly to ABC 7:

'The comedy I think is a big part of why the first movie worked. And so I think we really wanted to be true to that. At the same time, we want people to get all the feels, like that’s what we want. I get the most emotional in my life when I go to the movies and I see characters feeling something.'

My read

If the China momentum is real and the Thanksgiving legs show up, this is on a straight path to $1B. The only real speed bump is if word of mouth turns cold and it front-loads hard — or if 'Avatar: Fire & Ash' detonates late in the year and eats December. Also, I really hope this doesn’t go the 'Moana 2' route, which felt like it was rushed in to fill a holiday slot.

'Zootopia 2' hits theaters November 26, 2025. Are you in on opening weekend, or waiting to see the chatter first?