Why a Leading Game of Thrones Theorist Finally Gave Up on George R.R. Martin Finishing The Winds of Winter
Nearly fifteen years after The Winds of Winter slipped into limbo, leading Game of Thrones theorist Preston Jacobs says George R.R. Martin may never finish it—stirring fresh doubt on the Game of Thrones Podcast over whether the hype is worth keeping alive.
If you are still refreshing GRRM's blog waiting for The Winds of Winter, here is the current vibe: it has been almost 15 years since A Dance with Dragons, the fandom is split between optimism and resignation, and one of the most well-known theorists has tapped out.
Preston Jacobs has stopped expecting it
On The Game of Thrones Podcast, Preston Jacobs said he no longer believes The Winds of Winter is actually coming. He questioned the point of getting hyped for a book he expects to never see, and said he made peace with that a while ago.
"About three years ago, I came to the definitive conclusion that I just don't think Winds of Winter is coming."
Jacobs pointed to Martin's own comments over the years that every project he takes on matters to him equally, a stance the author has repeated recently. Jacobs' takeaway: Winds is not GRRM's top priority. He is also not alone; plenty of fans get annoyed any time Martin announces something that is not the novel.
What GRRM says now vs. what he said then
At this year's New York Comic Con, the 77-year-old author told Entertainment Weekly he is still interested in the book and determined to finish it. He also made it clear he will not drop his side projects because those are important to him too.
Since 2022, though, he has not shared fresh specifics about chapters. Back in 2022, he was saying he was close to finishing Tyrion's chapters and had around 1,100 to 1,200 manuscript pages done, a number he gave on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert's Tooning Out the News. After that, radio silence on the nitty-gritty.
The last few years: lots of side quests, not much momentum
From 2023 through this year, most updates have been about HBO work and other ventures. One of the more eyebrow-raising ones: his involvement in the de-extinction of dire wolves. Sure, that is fascinating, but it also underscores how scattered the to-do list has become.
Meanwhile, fellow fantasy author Jeffe Kennedy said in August that Martin's progress is essentially where it was three years ago, and even slipped from 75% to 70%. That figure comes from her report, not an official GRRM metric, but you can guess how fans took it. The obvious culprit, as Jacobs argued, is the pileup of other commitments — from multiple HBO spinoffs in development to editing duties on the Wild Cards series — which makes it feel like Winds simply is not the top line item anymore.
Where the series stands
- A Game of Thrones — 1996
- A Clash of Kings — 1998
- A Storm of Swords — 2000
- A Feast for Crows — 2005
- A Dance with Dragons — 2011
- The Winds of Winter — TBA
- A Dream of Spring — TBA
If Martin started offering real progress reports, maybe half the fandom would cool down, like Jacobs suggested. The flip side is the uncomfortable possibility there is nothing new to report. Until we see chapters or concrete numbers, expect more skepticism. Do you still think Winds gets finished? Tell me where your head is at.