Tron: Ares Box Office Predictions Tease a Massive Debut for Jared Leto Sequel
First box office forecasts have dropped for Tron: Ares as the neon-lit sequel races toward a US debut next month, with director Joachim Rønning at the helm and Jared Leto leading a cast that includes Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, and Gillian Anderson.
Tron is finally booting back up, and we have our first read on how the new one might open. Short version: it looks... fine. Not a blowout, not a disaster. Let’s dig in.
The early number
Per Deadline, 'Tron: Ares' is currently tracking for about $44 million domestic in its opening weekend. For context, that’s basically what 'Tron: Legacy' did back in 2010, and that movie legged out to $409.9 million worldwide. So while $44M isn’t a chest-thumping launch for a sci-fi tentpole in 2025, it’s not out of line for this series.
Inside baseball: why tracking might be low
"Of late on tracking, IMAX-fueled tentpoles like F1, Conjuring: Last Rites, and Weapons, have seen their actual box office dollars leaving their forecasts in the dust."
Translation: in the last few months, movies with premium-format juice have outperformed the spreadsheets. If 'Ares' over-indexes in IMAX and PLF, the opening could float higher.
What it costs and what it needs
Disney hasn’t planted a flag on the budget, but industry guesses are all over the map: anywhere from $150 million to north of $200 million. That’s a wide range, and it matters. If the movie catches on with audiences and reviews aren’t brutal, Tron could do what Tron does: hang around. There’s not a ton of direct sci-fi competition breathing down its neck right away.
- Opening weekend estimate: about $44M domestic (Deadline)
- Budget chatter: roughly $150M to $200M+
- Legacy comp: 'Tron: Legacy' opened around the same and finished at $409.9M worldwide
- Competition check: the following week brings 'The Black Phone 2' and 'Good Fortune', then 'Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere' after that
- If word of mouth is strong, 'Ares' could realistically hold the top spot until 'Predator: Badlands' lands in early November
- U.S. release: October 10, 2025, from Walt Disney Pictures
So what is this one about?
The hook this time is very 'Tron': a highly advanced Program named Ares gets sent out of the Grid and into the real world on a dangerous mission, which essentially becomes humanity’s first face-to-face with AI beings. It’s the franchise’s digital-meets-analog culture clash pushed into 2025 anxieties.
Who is in it, and who’s steering
Joachim Rønning is directing, returning the series to a shiny neon glow with Jared Leto as Ares, Greta Lee as Eve Kim, Evan Peters as Julian Dillinger, Jodie Turner-Smith as Athena, Gillian Anderson as Elisabeth Dillinger, and Jeff Bridges back as Kevin Flynn. Yep, it’s a direct continuation of the original 'Tron' and 'Tron: Legacy' storyline.
One last note: the tracking tidbits were highlighted by Deadline, and the initial report on the opening projection first bubbled up via Brandon Schreur at SuperHeroHype. As always, these numbers will move as we get closer, but for now, that’s the temperature check.