Predator: Badlands Needs This Box Office Haul to Break Even

Dan Trachtenberg finally dragged the Predator back out into the open with 'Predator: Badlands,' and yeah, we need to talk about the money. The price tag is a clean $105 million, and that number basically sets the whole game. Here is where the early tracking lands, what the break-even math looks like, and whether this thing can actually make its money back.

The money math (aka the unsexy part)

Per Variety, the production budget is $105 million. Studios never shout about marketing, but a solid rule is to assume promo and distribution cost roughly the same as production. That puts the all-in around $210 million. In other words: this movie likely needs about double its production budget worldwide before anyone calls it profitable. Fun? No. Useful? Definitely.

Early tracking: promising start, not a victory lap

According to Variety, 'Predator: Badlands' is expected to open to $25–30 million in North America and another $35–38 million overseas. Call it $60–68 million global for opening weekend. For context, that would be one of the franchise’s bigger starts since 'Alien vs. Predator,' which opened to $38 million back in 2004. Good sign for Disney and 20th Century Studios, but it still has to hold over the next few weeks for that $210 million break-even to be realistic.

What could push it over the line

The buzz is actually strong. Early reactions lean 'crowd-pleaser,' with a lot of love for the action, some surprising emotional beats, and slick visuals. The big strategic swing: it is PG-13. Most Predator movies wore the R like a badge, which also limited who could show up. A PG-13 rating widens the net, and that matters when you are trying to build an audience beyond the die-hards.

Timing also helps. The post-Halloween box office has been sluggish, and theaters are still shaking off the underperformance of 'Tron: Ares' and 'The Smashing Machine.' With no serious competition stacked right on top of its date, 'Badlands' has some runway. If it does not collapse after weekend one, it is very much in the game.

The movie at a glance

• Ninth film in the Predator franchise, and easily its boldest creative gamble so far
• Director: Dan Trachtenberg
• Main cast: Elle Fanning (in a dual role), Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi (playing an outcast Predator), Mike Homik, Rohinal Narayan, Reuben De Jong, Cameron Brown
• Rating: PG-13
• Runtime: 1h 47m
• Scores out of the gate: IMDb 7.5/10, Rotten Tomatoes 87%
• Release date: November 7, 2025 (USA)

The verdict (for now)

If those projections hold, 'Predator: Badlands' opens solidly, not spectacularly. To hit that rough $210 million break-even target, it needs legs. The PG-13 play, the upbeat early word, and the clear calendar all help. I am cautiously optimistic this one sticks around long enough to make the math work — but the second and third weekends will tell the real story.