How Much TBOSAS Needs After $50M Projected Opening to Break Even?

How Much TBOSAS Needs After $50M Projected Opening to Break Even?
Image credit: Lions Gate Films

The prequel isn't likely to kill it at the box office, but it doesn't look like it will lose Lionsgate money, either.


  • Analysts are predicting a $50 million opening for the upcoming blockbuster, but that doesn't mean the movie won't break even.
  • Thanks to a modest budget and the huge appeal of the original films, TBOSAS could actually become a modest hit.

In the early 2010s, the world went wild for dystopian teen movies, with franchises like Divergent and Maze Runner earning hundreds of millions at the box office. The biggest of them all was undoubtedly The Hunger Games, a film series that made Jennifer Lawrence a household name. Almost a decade after it ended, it looks like Hollywood isn't done with the franchise: it has just produced a prequel based on Suzanne Collins's 2020 novel The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes.

The upcoming film features up-and-comers Tom Blyth and Rachel Zegler and a star-studded supporting cast, which includes Hunter Schafer, Jason Schwartzman, Peter Dinklage, and Viola Davis, suggesting that Lionsgate is taking the prequel very seriously. But will it be successful?

Grim Projections

Recently, analysts predicted that TBOSAS would only open to $50 million in the U.S., a projection that surprised fans as Lionsgate had been marketing the movie as one of the fall's biggest blockbusters. Upon hearing these projections, fans began to worry that the movie would lose money, but it looks like the studio should still be able to recoup their spending on the movie, and it might even turn a profit.

Although the movie's projected opening is less than half of what the franchise's least successful film, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, earned when it came out in 2015, that doesn't necessarily spell disaster. TBOSAS has a very modest budget compared to the original films.

In fact, the upcoming movie only cost Lionsgate $100 million to produce, meaning that a $50 million opening is actually quite promising for its total box office. Of course, the movie still needs to gross at least $200 million to recoup both the production and advertising costs and break even, but if fans embrace it and spread the word, that goal isn't out of reach.

Furthermore, the global box office will likely bring in at least $100 million for TBOSAS, which means that the movie can actually turn a profit for Lionsgate. That may encourage the studio to continue developing The Hunger Games franchise.