2026 Golden Globes Odds: Who’s Poised to Win Every Category
The 2026 Golden Globes race just shifted as fresh odds across every category elevate surprise contenders and put longtime favorites on notice. See who’s surging, who’s slipping, and where the biggest upsets could hit.
Golden Globes odds are out, and the early math is wild. After nominations landed Monday, December 8, the hive mind jumped straight into prediction mode for the January 11, 2026 telecast on CBS, with Nikki Glaser back as host. Tally count up top: 'One Battle After Another' leads with nine nominations, 'Sentimental Value' has eight, and 'Sinners' grabbed seven.
The numbers below come from Gold Derby voter odds as of December 9, 2025. They will move as voters panic, new screeners drop, and narratives shift, but as a snapshot of where the race stands right now, this is the clearest picture. Also, yes, the Globes now hand out trophies for stand-up and podcasts. We live here now.
Film races
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Frankenstein - 0.52%
Hamnet - 54.18%
It Was Just an Accident - 3%
Sentimental Value - 5.61%
Sinners - 34.33%
The Secret Agent - 2.35%
Quick read: 'Hamnet' is out front, with 'Sinners' looming as the spoiler.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Blue Moon - 0.40%
Bugonia - 0%
Marty Supreme - 0.93%
No Other Choice - 0.40%
Nouvelle Vague - 0.53%
One Battle After Another - 97.74%
This is a beatdown. 'One Battle After Another' is basically a coronation here.
Best non-English language film
It Was Just an Accident - 67.45%
No Other Choice - 0.41%
The Secret Agent - 7.86%
Sentimental Value - 23.59%
Sirat - 0.41%
The Voice of Hind Rajab - 0.55%
Best Motion Picture - Animated
Arco - 1.52%
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle - 0.55%
Elio - 0.28%
KPop Demon Hunters - 83.88%
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain - 3.86%
Zootopia 2 - 9.92%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet - 96%
Jennifer Lawrence - Die, My Love - 1.05%
Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value - 1.97%
Julia Roberts - After the Hunt - 0.53%
Tessa Thompson - Hedda - 0.39%
Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby - 0.26%
Buckley is running away with it on paper.
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams - 1.97%
Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein - 0.39%
Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine - 1.05%
Michael B Jordan - Sinners - 16.93%
Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent - 79%
Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere - 0.66%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You - 82%
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good - 4.93%
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue - 0.53%
Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another - 2.53%
Amanda Seyfried - The Testament of Ann Lee - 3.6%
Emma Stone - Bugonia - 6.13%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme - 60.53%
George Clooney - Jay Kelly - 0.27%
Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another - 26.13%
Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon - 11.73%
Lee Byung-Hun - No Other Choice - 1.07%
Jesse Plemons - Bugonia - 0.27%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Emily Blunt - The Smashing Machine - 0.13%
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value - 1.06%
Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good - 15.56%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value - 6.38%
Amy Madigan - Weapons - 24.07%
Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another - 52.79%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another - 19.57%
Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein - 1.88%
Paul Mescal - Hamnet - 2.01%
Sean Penn - One Battle After Another - 10.46%
Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly - 1.34%
Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value - 64.75%
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash - 7.82%
F1 - 0.71%
KPop Demon Hunters - 2.28%
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning - 0.43%
Sinners - 79.37%
Weapons - 0.85%
Wicked: For Good - 4.69%
Zootopia 2 - 3.84%
Best Director - Motion Picture
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another - 91.24%
Ryan Coogler - Sinners - 1.89%
Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein - 0.67%
Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident - 4.85%
Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - 0.27%
Chloe Zhao - Hamnet - 1.08%
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another - 65.66%
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme - 0.14%
Ryan Coogler - Sinners - 9.17%
Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident - 17.65%
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value - 4.51%
Chloe Zhao, Maggie O'Farrell - Hamnet - 2.87%
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
Miley Cyrus, Andrew Wyatt, Mark Ronson, Simon Franglen - Avatar: Fire and Ash; 'Dream as One' - 1.12%
Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Park Hong Jun, Kim Eun-jae (EJAE), Mark Sonnenblick - KPop Demon Hunters; 'Golden' - 81.01%
Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Goransson - Sinners; 'I Lied to You' - 14.94%
Stephen Schwartz - Wicked: For Good; 'No Place Like Home' - 1.68%
Stephen Schwartz - Wicked: For Good; 'The Girl in the Bubble' - 0.56%
Nick Cave, Bryce Dessner - Train Dreams; 'Train Dreams' - 0.7%
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat - Frankenstein - 0.42%
Ludwig Goransson - Sinners - 84.52%
Jonny Greenwood - One Battle After Another - 11.58%
Kanding Ray - Sirat - 1.67%
Max Richter - Hamnet - 1.39%
Hans Zimmer - F1 - 0.42%
TV races
Best Television Series - Drama
The Diplomat - 0.22%
The Pitt - 80.04%
Pluribus - 6.07%
Severance - 11.28%
Slow Horses - 0.43%
The White Lotus - 1.95%
Best Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Abbott Elementary - 0.44%
The Bear - 0.44%
Hacks - 3.07%
Nobody Wants This - 0.44%
Only Murders in the Building - 1.75%
The Studio - 93.86%
Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
Adolescence - 98.03%
All Her Fault - 0.44%
The Beast In Me - 0%
Black Mirror - 0.44%
Dying for Sex - 0.88%
The Girlfriend - 0.22%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series - Drama
Kathy Bates - Matlock - 5.63%
Britt Lower - Severance - 21.21%
Helen Mirren - Mobland - 0.43%
Bella Ramsey - The Last of Us - 0.65%
Keri Russell - The Diplomat - 1.08%
Rhea Seehorn - Pluribus - 71%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series - Drama
Sterling K Brown - Paradise - 0.65%
Diego Luna - Andor - 1.95%
Gary Oldman - Slow Horses - 0.22%
Mark Ruffalo - Task - 0.87%
Adam Scott - Severance - 6.71%
Noah Wyle - The Pitt - 89.61%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell - Nobody Wants This - 3.95%
Ayo Edebiri - The Bear - 0.66%
Selena Gomez - Only Murders in the Building - 1.54%
Natasha Lyonne - Poker Face - 0.22%
Jenna Ortega - Wednesday - 2.19%
Jean Smart - Hacks - 91.45%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series - Musical or Comedy
Adam Brody - Nobody Wants This - 0.44%
Steve Martin - Only Murders in the Building - 0.88%
Glen Powell - Chad Powers - 1.31%
Seth Rogen - The Studio - 93.22%
Martin Short - Only Murders in the Building - 3.72%
Jeremy Allen White - The Bear - 0.44%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Claire Danes - The Beast in Me - 2.65%
Rashida Jones - Black Mirror - 0.88%
Amanda Seyfried - Long Bright River - 0.88%
Sarah Snook - All Her Fault - 18.58%
Michelle Williams - Dying for Sex - 76.11%
Robin Wright - The Girlfriend - 0.88%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Jacob Elordi - The Narrow Road to the Deep North - 0.44%
Paul Giamatti - Black Mirror - 1.32%
Stephen Graham - Adolescence - 91.19%
Charlie Hunnam - Monster: The Ed Gein Story - 5.51%
Jude Law - Black Rabbit - 0.22%
Matthew Rhys - The Beast in Me - 1.32%
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
Carrie Coon - The White Lotus - 4.43%
Erin Doherty - Adolescence - 36.81%
Hannah Einbinder - Hacks - 53.88%
Catherine O'Hara - The Studio - 2.00%
Parker Posey - The White Lotus - 2.00%
Aimee-Lou Wood - The White Lotus - 0.89%
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
Owen Cooper - Adolescence - 91.15%
Billy Crudup - The Morning Show - 0.44%
Walton Goggins - The White Lotus - 1.33%
Jason Isaacs - The White Lotus - 0.44%
Tramell Tillman - Severance - 6.42%
Ashley Walters - Adolescence - 0.22%
Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television
Bill Maher - Is Anyone Else Seeing This? - 6.03%
Brett Goldstein - The Second Best Night of Your Life - 17.40%
Kevin Hart - Acting My Age - 2.09%
Kumail Nanjiani - Night Thoughts - 2.55%
Ricky Gervais - Mortality - 66.82%
Sarah Silverman - Sarah Silverman: PostMortem - 5.10%
Best Podcast
Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard - 0.69%
Call Her Daddy - 1.83%
Good Hang with Amy Poehler - 93.81%
The Mel Robbins Podcast - 0.23%
SmartLess - 2.52%
Up First from NPR - 0.92%
A few takeaways if you do not have the patience for percentages: 'One Battle After Another' looks like a juggernaut in comedy/musical (plus PTA up big for Director and Screenplay), 'Hamnet' is the drama film to beat while 'Sinners' is roaring in score and the box office slot, 'KPop Demon Hunters' is crushing animated and Original Song, 'The Pitt' and 'The Studio' are the TV series favorites, and 'Adolescence' is steamrolling the limited series field. We will see how much of this sticks by the time Nikki Glaser hits the stage on January 11.