Wicked: For Good Early Box Office Forecasts Debunk the Go Woke Go Broke Narrative

Wicked is gearing up for round two, and the early numbers are loud. The first movie took its share of online beatdowns and the usual go-woke-go-broke heckling, then turned around and printed money. The sequel looks ready to do the same, only bigger.

How big are we talking?

• Global opening weekend is currently projected at $195M–$230M, per Screen Time.
• Deadline pegs it around $200M for the frame and suggests that number could climb.
• Breakdown floating around town: more than $70M from 78 international markets, plus $125M–$150M from about 4,000 theaters in the U.S. and Canada.
• Some exhibitor chatter goes even higher on the domestic side, up to roughly $175M during the opening stretch. Yes, the math gets a little messy depending on whose model you’re reading, but the takeaway is the same: this thing is tracking huge.
• Critics so far: 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. Audience buzz: a very healthy 97% score.

Release, cast, and where the story picks up

Wicked: For Good lands November 21. It picks up right where the first film left off, so expect an immediate continuation instead of a time jump. Ariana Grande returns as Glinda, with Cynthia Erivo back as Elphaba. Also along for the ride: Jonathan Bailey, Marissa Bode, and Ethan Slater — plus some heavyweight additions, with Jeff Goldblum as The Wizard and Michelle Yeoh as Madame Morrible.

What the sequel is actually about (mild spoilers)

After that bittersweet split at the end of the first movie, Elphaba goes underground — literally into the forest — to stay out of Madame Morrible’s crosshairs. Meanwhile, the curtain drops on the big lie: The Wizard everyone adored is enslaving animals and wants Elphaba’s power for his own schemes. The sequel leans into the two identities we all know — Elphaba as the so-called Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda as Glinda the Good — and forces both of them to choose who they’re going to be when they finally face The Wizard and Morrible.

Quick rewind: last year’s Wicked didn’t just survive — it set a record

The first movie opened to $112.5M domestic and about $164M worldwide — a record at the time for a Broadway adaptation. And it did that while going head-to-head with Gladiator II, which turned Thanksgiving into a double-feature event all over again. The early tracking for the sequel suggests it could leapfrog those numbers without breaking a sweat.

The noise around it, and who pushed back

The first movie caught flak from the usual corners, including a protest from the One Million Moms group. Kristin Chenoweth — who originated Glinda on stage — didn’t let that slide. As she put it (via Out Magazine):

"Everyone knows the 'one million Moms' are a mere few hundred. Maybe. it’s called entertainment. Artistry. I am a Christian woman who originated the role of Glinda and all the silliness that these women spew out of hate."

The practical stuff

Wicked: For Good opens November 21 with the main players back and some big guns added. If you want a refresher before showtime, Wicked is available to stream on Prime Video.