Who’s Doomed in Avengers: Doomsday? Thunderbolts Survival Odds, Ranked

Marvel snuck an asterisk onto Thunderbolts* and made us all wonder what the footnote was. Turns out it was a setup: the team we met there is actually The New Avengers. That reveal did not land smoothly with everyone. And since that crew is now rolling straight into Avengers: Doomsday, the real question becomes: who makes it out of that movie alive?

Quick refresher: Thunderbolts* was a misfit-turned-antihero lineup of seven. One of them is already off the board by the end of the 2025 film — Taskmaster is dead — so we’re not counting her here. Yes, that early Ghost moment was a jaw-dropper. With that in mind, here’s how I’d stack the surviving odds for the rest, from safest to most doomed.

1. Yelena Belova
   Introduced in Black Widow and now officially carrying the Black Widow mantle after Natasha’s death, Florence Pugh’s Yelena has become the heartbeat of this squad. She’s proven to be a steady leader and a fan favorite, which usually equals plot armor. Killing off the new Black Widow this soon would be shock-for-shock’s-sake, and Marvel’s not about to do that when she’s the franchise’s best new anchor character. Yelena feels safest of the bunch heading into Doomsday.

2. U.S. Agent (John Walker)
   Wyatt Russell’s John Walker was the government’s handpicked Captain America in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, even after Steve literally chose Sam. That went… badly, and Walker pivoted into U.S. Agent. He’s messy, polarizing, and clearly on a slow-burn redemption path. A heroic sacrifice is probably in his future, but not yet. Marvel will want him around long enough to make that payoff count — especially if he crosses paths with Sam’s Cap in Doomsday. Odds are he lives to fight another day.

3. Ghost (Ava Starr)
   Hannah John-Kamen’s Ava has been living with quantum-caused phasing and constant molecular pain since Ant-Man and the Wasp. She’s always been a tragic figure looking for a fix. Two plausible endgames for her in Doomsday: a self-sacrifice that saves the team, or her body finally giving out in an irreversible breakdown. Either way, it would end the pain she’s been in every waking moment. Given how Thunderbolts* sets her on a harsher path — including taking out Taskmaster early — a redemption play here would hurt in the right way.

4. Bucky Barnes (The Winter Soldier)
   This one stings. Sebastian Stan’s Bucky has been through it since Phase 2 — brainwashing, atonement, therapy, the whole climb back out. At this point, the only milestone left is leading people into a fight and making it count. A final stand that buys peace — for him and for everyone he’s failed or saved along the way — would track with how Marvel retired Steve, Tony, and Natasha. I hope I’m wrong, but the speculation around Bucky not making it out of Doomsday is loud for a reason.

5. Red Guardian (Alexei Shostakov)
   David Harbour plays Alexei as an oversized goof with real dad energy — especially with Yelena. That bond is exactly why his death would hurt and why it would matter. If Doomsday needs to lay down a marker that the stakes are real, Red Guardian is a brutal but effective choice: it would shatter the team’s mood, push Yelena into the next phase of leadership, and remind everyone this isn’t playtime anymore. As much as Harbour is a blast in the role, Alexei feels dangerously expendable.

6. Sentry / The Void
   Sentry is absurdly powerful, and Marvel tends to keep god-tier characters on a short leash. Think about how long the fully juiced versions of people like Thanos actually stuck around. With The Void as his destructive alter, Sentry is basically a story nuke. The likeliest outcomes in Doomsday are ugly: either Doctor Doom puts him down, or Sentry takes himself off the board by unleashing The Void to save everyone else. Either way, don’t expect him to be a long-term fixture — he’s the most likely corpse on this list.

For context on the movie that set all this up: Thunderbolts* was directed by Jake Schreier and starred Florence Pugh, David Harbour, and Lewis Pullman, among others. It opened May 2, 2025, pulled in about $382 million worldwide, and currently sits around 7.1/10 on IMDb with an 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s a Marvel Studios release and it’s streaming on Disney+ if you need a refresher before Doomsday.

Avengers: Doomsday is scheduled for December 18, 2026 in the U.S. Who do you think makes it to the end credits?