Who Will Rule the Box Office: The Boss, Chainsaw Man, or Colleen Hoover?
After a sleepy stretch, the box office snaps back to life this weekend as The Boss storms into theaters, squaring off with Chainsaw Man and Colleen Hoover in a crowded race for the top spot.
October has been a slog at the box office. Big studio swings with big names have face-planted, and even the so-called bright spots aren’t clearing the bar. So here’s where this weekend’s new releases land in that messy landscape.
Quick reality check
October hasn’t delivered a real breakout since the anime surge of Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle. Since then, nothing has popped. Titles like Roofman, The Smashing Machine, and After the Hunt have stumbled, and even a bona fide hit like The Black Phone 2 still hasn’t cracked $30 million. That $30M line might stay untouched again this weekend.
The likely winner: romance with a hook
Regretting You, the latest Colleen Hoover adaptation, looks like the safest bet for No. 1. It’s got the date-night angle we haven’t seen in a minute, plus Mason Thames is on a heater — he already notched two No. 1 openings this year with How to Train Your Dragon and The Black Phone 2. This would be his third. The catch? Reviews aren’t pretty, so don’t expect It Ends With Us-level staying power. Opening projection: $20 million.
The Boss plays runner-up (but with legs)
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere feels locked for second with an $18 million start. Bruce’s fanbase shows up, Jeremy Allen White is having a moment, the reviews are strong, and music biopics generally don’t collapse after opening weekend. Think a steadier glide, similar to A Complete Unknown.
Anime swings again
Crunchyroll’s next theatrical push after Demon Slayer is Chainsaw Man: The Movie. Don’t confuse it as a Demon Slayer sequel — it’s just their next big anime event. It won’t match Infinity Castle’s fireworks, but a debut a little north of $10 million would still be a strong win for the studio. Tracking suggests roughly $10M for the weekend.
Holdovers and wrap-ups
The Black Phone 2 should hang around the podium with about $14 million, while Tron: Ares looks to close out its run and cling to the top five with around $6.5 million.
Weekend box office predictions
- Regretting You – $20 million
- Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere – $18 million
- The Black Phone 2 – $14 million
- Chainsaw Man: The Movie – $10 million
- Tron: Ares – $6.5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Drop your pick in the comments.