Weekend Box Office Photo Finish: Regretting You and The Black Phone 2 Neck-and-Neck

Weekend box office nail-biter: The Black Phone 2 and Regretting You are barreling toward a razor-thin photo finish, with the winner likely decided by the final ticket stubs.

What looked like a sleepy, lowest-of-the-month box office weekend turned into a nail-biter at the last minute. For anyone not glued to the Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series clincher, the theaters had their own photo finish: Paramount's 'Regretting You' slipped past Universal's 'The Black Phone 2' by the tiniest hair.

The razor-thin win

'Regretting You' banked an estimated $8.1 million, nudging past 'The Black Phone 2' at $8.0 million. That $100k spread is small enough that the leaderboard could flip when the final numbers land. Also worth noting: that $8.0 million for 'Black Phone 2' is about $1 million above early-week projections, which is a nice little overperformance for a weekend everyone expected to be sluggish.

The twisty part here: both movies feature Mason Thames, who is quietly having a banner year between this face-off and that hit 'How to Train Your Dragon' remake.

How the leaders are playing the long game

'Regretting You' is the latest Colleen Hoover adaptation, and while it is pacing softer than 'It Ends With Us' (no comparable star wattage or headline-grabbing drama this time), it is still a win for Paramount. The domestic haul sits at $27.5 million, and given the scale, profitability looks very likely.

'The Black Phone 2' is turning into Blumhouse's healthiest performer in a bit, now up to $61 million domestic. If you are sensing a 'Black Phone 3' in the air, you are not wrong. Would not be shocked if they keep that mask on standby for parts 4 and 5.

The rest of the field, quick hits

• 'Chainsaw Man: The Movie' took a sharp 67% second-week drop to $6 million, for a $30.7 million total. Big fall, but a solid overall number for an anime rollout.
• Yorgos Lanthimos's 'Bugonia' had trouble pulling in the older crowd, but the $4.8 million weekend actually marks his largest expansion opening to date. Small win inside a tougher marketplace.
• 'Back to the Future' cruised back into theaters for a 40th-anniversary IMAX run and pulled $4.7 million. Lifetime domestic is now $221 million; inflation-adjusted, you are looking at north of $600 million. Power of the flux capacitor still intact.
• 'Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere' slipped 57% in weekend two to $3.8 million, pushing just over $16 million total. Rough theatrically for Searchlight, but this feels like a title that will find its audience on Hulu.
• 'K-Pop Demon Hunters' is likely in this neighborhood with an estimated $3.4 million per Deadline, but Netflix does not report grosses, so we are stuck with educated guesses.
• 'Tron: Ares' added $2.8 million for $67 million domestic. With a rumored $200 million budget, the math is not kind. This one is going to bleed.
• Indie toon 'Stitch Head' opened to a modest $2.1 million. For a film with almost no buzz, not a bad first step.
• Aziz Ansari's 'Good Fortune' continues comedy's cold streak: $1.4 million this weekend, $14.6 million domestic total, even with Keanu Reeves front and center.
• P.T. Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' rounded out the top ten at $1.15 million, now at $67.7 million as it eases out of wide release into specialty bookings. If you are in L.A., it is even playing in VistaVision at the Vista.

What is next

Next weekend brings 'Predator: Badlands'. The hope is it gives the box office a little shot of adrenaline. After this weekend's neck-and-neck finish, any jolt would be welcome.