Tron Ares Stumbles at the Box Office, Set to Miss $40 Million Mark

Quick pulse check on the weekend box office: the neon glow is a little dimmer than expected, and the star vehicles are fighting for scraps. Let me break it down without the fluff.

'Tron: Ares' is landing in the mid-30s, not 40

Earlier this week I figured 'Tron: Ares' would muscle past its fair-to-middling reviews and sneak into the $40 million range. Deadline now says not so fast: the third 'Tron' is looking at the mid-30s. The phrasing out there has been a little messy, but read it as roughly $35–37 million.

For context, 'Tron: Legacy' opened to $44 million fifteen years ago (not adjusted), so this is a step down. Also, with a production price tag of at least $150 million, that kind of domestic start is... not ideal. There is a path to breakeven globally, but it will need a real overseas assist.

Is this shocking? Not really. The 'Tron' brand has never been a mainstream juggernaut. The 1982 original underperformed, and while 'Legacy' did decent business, it didn’t do enough to trigger the immediate sequels Disney had lined up back then. Add in the Jared Leto factor: always a polarizing lead and not exactly a reliable ticket-seller (see: 'Morbius'). The silver lining is that audiences who do show up seem to be having a good time — 'Ares' pulled a B+ CinemaScore, which is solid for a big, weird sci-fi swing.

The rest of the top tier

• 'Roofman' (Channing Tatum): projecting around $8 million. That is soft for an old-school, star-driven play. The movie is excellent, though, and could leg out if word-of-mouth actually matters this month. Still, the takeaway here is brutal: adult, star-centric dramas increasingly feel like they have to live on streaming. A decade ago, this exact movie probably would have popped.
• 'One Battle After Another': on track for $6.7 million this weekend, pushing the total to $54 million. Not a hit, but hopefully it finds profit territory. It is exactly the kind of mid-budget title studios should keep making. Fun bit of industry scuttlebutt: many believe this film’s performance nudged WB to let Amazon pick up 'Heat 2'.

Bottom line: 'Tron: Ares' isn’t collapsing, but it is under the $40 million line and relying on international. Meanwhile, the smaller, star-led stuff keeps getting squeezed — even when it’s good. What are you seeing this weekend?