The Rock Faces His Toughest Opponent Yet: Taylor Swift at the Box Office
Critics are crowning Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine a career high, but at the box office he’s stepping into the ring with Taylor Swift — and she’s the odds-on favorite.
It was supposed to be The Rock vs. the world. Instead, it’s The Rock vs. Taylor Swift. That’s this weekend’s box office story in a nutshell.
A24 swings big with The Smashing Machine
Dwayne Johnson’s turn as MMA legend Mark Kerr in The Smashing Machine has been hyped as his crowning achievement. He’s getting serious praise, and people are already tossing around the O-word. It’s also A24’s biggest release of the year and, after pricey faceplants like Death of a Unicorn and Opus, their best shot at a legit hit. On paper, it looked like a lock for a number-one opening.
Then Swift happened
Out of nowhere, Taylor Swift announced The Life of a Showgirl, a surprise movie tied to her new album. Classic Swift move: roll out a film like it’s a surprise track drop and watch the weekend reorient around her. The film hasn’t screened for critics yet, which is unusual for something this large, but when you’re Swift, normal rules are optional.
The Eras Tour film was a historic monster, but this isn’t a concert doc, and it won’t be limited to those tightly scheduled showtimes. I don’t see it matching Eras’ $90 million debut, but her fanbase can absolutely power a huge opening. Expect a heavy $40 million first weekend that steamrolls the field.
So where does that leave The Rock?
Not stranded, just bumped to silver. Johnson’s star power guarantees an audience. A second-place opening around $15 million is the likely landing spot — totally respectable for an A24 play, even if they were hoping for more. The twist: it might not be an easy second.
PTA is lurking with the strong legs
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is drawing raves and sporting an A CinemaScore, which is code for excellent word of mouth. That kind of audience response means it could hang around and build. For opening weekend, look for it to run neck-and-neck with The Smashing Machine in the $13 million range.
Everyone else in the mix
Families aren’t going anywhere: Gabby’s Dollhouse should hold steady in week two with about $8 million. On the horror side, The Conjuring: Last Rites is expected to creep past Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle for the final Top 5 slot with roughly $4 million. One more wrinkle: IFC and Shudder’s Good Boy could surprise and sneak into the five. People love a dog movie. The only catch is the 72-minute runtime, which is a little thin for a full-price ticket.
- The Life of a Showgirl – $40 million
- The Smashing Machine – $15 million
- One Battle After Another – $13 million
- Gabby’s Dollhouse – $8 million
- The Conjuring: Last Rites – $4 million