The Black Phone 2 Is Primed to End Blumhouse’s Box Office Slump
The Black Phone 2 is dialing up a strong opening that could snap Blumhouse’s cold streak, even if it won’t match the original’s numbers.
October is whiffing again. Last year, Joker: Folie a Deux fumbled and cast a long shadow over the month, and this year the vibe is the same: lots of movies, not a lot of money. A couple of well-liked star vehicles, The Smashing Machine and Roofman, face-planted, and Disney’s pricey Tron: Ares keeps reminding everyone this series is, generously, niche. No shock that Netflix is rolling K-pop Demon Hunters back out this Halloween weekend. Theaters could use a sure thing.
Blumhouse is up next at bat
Enter The Black Phone 2, Blumhouse’s big spooky-season bet opening this weekend. The first Black Phone was a textbook sleeper hit: over $23 million in its opening, then crazy legs to around $90 million domestic and north of $160 million worldwide on a $16 million budget. Peak Blumhouse math: small spend, big concept, big payoff.
But lately that math has been broken. The company has been cold with bigger swings: Wolf Man, Woman in the Yard, Drop, and the not-cheap M3GAN 2.0 all underperformed. The Black Phone 2 looks like the streak-breaker, though, tracking for a $20 million debut. That said, do not expect the original’s legs. Audiences seem puzzled about why Ethan Hawke’s The Grabber is back after dying last time, and word is he barely shows up here. On the flip side, Mason Thames is hotter now than he was in 2022 — the live-action How to Train Your Dragon was one of the summer’s hits — and he’s back on screens again next weekend with Regretting You. Timing helps.
The rest of the field
Tron: Ares should land in second with about $15 million, which likely means a 50–60% drop in its second weekend. At this point, the message for the franchise is pretty clear. Aziz Ansari’s Good Fortune looks to open around $10 million, boosted by Keanu Reeves playing an angel, but reviews are mixed and theatrical comedy has been a tough sell lately.
Amazon/MGM’s awards hopeful After the Hunt should open in fourth around $6 million. Reviews are mixed there too, and it feels like another star-driven drama people will wait to stream. Roofman should round out the top five with about $5 million.
My weekend predictions
- The Black Phone 2: $20 million
- Tron: Ares: $15 million
- Good Fortune: $10 million
- After the Hunt: $6 million
- Roofman: $5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Tell me below.