The 29-Year-Old Breakout Poised to Outshine Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis at the 2026 Oscars
At 29, Timothée Chalamet has surged to the front of the 2026 Best Actor race, seizing a commanding 62% win probability on Gold Derby’s experts chart for his ferocious turn in Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme—leaving Hollywood’s old guard in the dust.
Oscar season just got a plot twist: Timothee Chalamet vaulted into front-runner status for Best Actor off a single surprise screening, not a full review rollout or a months-long campaign. It took one high-voltage New York Film Festival bow for Josh Safdie's ping-pong fever dream to scramble the leaderboard and put a 29-year-old at the top of the heap over, yes, Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis. Wild.
How we got here
Gold Derby's experts chart now gives Chalamet a 62% chance to win Best Actor for 'Marty Supreme' and a 94% shot to be nominated. That leap happened right after the film quietly crashed NYFF and detonated on social media. No press tour. No saturation campaign. Just a wave of stunned reactions that made awards watchers hit the recalibrate button.
The movie fueling the hype
'Marty Supreme' is Josh Safdie directing solo (no Benny this time), and the thing is reportedly a high-speed cocktail: part sports biopic, part caper, part panic attack. Chalamet plays Marty Mauser, a ping-pong prodigy whose ambition outruns his impulse control. Think the cat-and-mouse energy of 'Catch Me If You Can' jammed into the nerve-shredding intensity of 'Uncut Gems' — that comparison is coming up a lot, including in Variety's write-ups from the screening.
The supporting cast only makes the whole thing stranger in the best way: Odessa A'Zion is getting singled out in reactions, and then you've got Kevin O'Leary, Fran Drescher, Abel Ferrara, and Tyler, the Creator popping up. Yes, that is a lineup. A24 is treating this like a big swing — Christmas Day release, and by their standards, one of the pricier original productions they have mounted.
What people are saying (and yelling) after NYFF
The first wave of reactions is exactly the kind of breathless that changes an awards race. Critics are calling it Safdie's best work, a sprawling sports epic, and a full-body adrenaline shot. The tone is: we wanted the 'Uncut Gems' follow-up energy and got it, plus a sense of youthful swagger. One reaction even framed Chalamet's performance like a pro-wrestling coronation moment — which, if you know, you know.
"Major, exhilarating filmmaking... Timothee Chalamet's career-best performance — he was born to play this guy." — David Canfield
Bottom line from the ground: this is the loudest and loosest Chalamet has ever been on screen, and people are calling it the performance of his career.
The competition is not exactly light
Chalamet isn't outpacing newcomers — he is leapfrogging legends. Leonardo DiCaprio is very much in the hunt with 'One Battle After Another,' playing a character named Bob in a film many are already slotting into their Best Picture shortlists. Meanwhile, Daniel Day-Lewis came back after eight years for 'Anemone,' which should be an automatic event, but the early response is muted: it's currently at 54% on Rotten Tomatoes, and that chill has crept into his odds.
Elsewhere, Dwayne Johnson bulked up (literally) for 'The Smashing Machine' as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, and while the buzz is real, he isn't in the top cluster on the current chart. And yes, a certain awards-twitter account is already baiting the debate with those 'Who should win?' posts. It is that time of year.
Where the odds stand right now
- Timothee Chalamet — 'Marty Supreme' — Win: 62% — Nomination: 94%
- Leonardo DiCaprio — 'One Battle After Another' — Win: 24% — Nomination: 94%
- Jeremy Allen White — 'Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere' — Win: 5% — Nomination: 83%
- Michael B. Jordan — 'Sinners' — Win: 2% — Nomination: 58%
- Wagner Moura — 'The Secret Agent' — Win: 1% — Nomination: 28%
- Jesse Plemons — 'Bugonia' — Win: 1% — Nomination: 24%
- Daniel Day-Lewis — 'Anemone' — Win: 0% — Nomination: 19%
- George Clooney — 'Jay Kelly' — Win: 0% — Nomination: 19%
Reality check
Gold Derby charts are a snapshot, not gospel. 'Marty Supreme' hasn't been fully reviewed yet, and December is notorious for late surges. DiCaprio has the kind of across-the-branch support that can harden over time, and Day-Lewis, even with a soft start, is one CQ campaign away from reentering the conversation. For now, though, Chalamet has the ball — and the momentum.
Dates you need
'Marty Supreme' hits theaters December 25, 2025 (A24's Christmas play).
'Anemone' expands wide via Focus Features on October 10, 2025.
'One Battle After Another' is already out as of September 26, 2025.
Your turn: is Chalamet peaking too early, or is this the coronation? Drop your most chaotic Best Actor predictions below. I will absolutely keep score.