Taylor Swift Knocks Out The Smashing Machine at the Box Office

We called it earlier this week: The Rock was never going to outmuscle Taylor Swift. And sure enough, Swift took the weekend, The Rock took the L, and the numbers tell a pretty wild story.

Swift wins the weekend (again)

'Taylor Swift: Official Release Party of a Showgirl' is pacing toward about $30 million for its debut. That is under the $40 million a lot of folks (including me) were expecting, but the audience response is nuclear: an A+ CinemaScore and the kind of social buzz you cannot buy. Swifties showed up. Again.

The Rock's roughest opening

Here is the shocker: Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson's 'The Smashing Machine' is stumbling out of the gate. Deadline has it around $6.2 million for the weekend, which would be the weakest opening of Johnson's career. Even his early misfires like 'Faster' and the underseen 'Fighting With My Family' started stronger.

That stings extra because the movie has reportedly earned the best reviews of Johnson's career and was positioned as an awards play. He clearly poured a lot into it; audiences just did not show up.

A24's bumpy 2025 continues

This is also another body blow for A24, which has been taking it on the chin at the box office this year. After a run of high-profile misses ('Death of a Unicorn', 'Opus', 'Bring Her Back', 'Warfare'), the only real bright spots so far have been 'Materialists' and 'Friendship'. 'The Smashing Machine' was supposed to be one of the course-corrects. It was not.

PTA holds second with a steep drop

Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' is sitting in second with about $12 million, down 55% from last weekend. For a movie that reportedly cost around $150 million, that is not ideal. Still, if the awards chatter keeps building, it could get a second wind later in the season. Key phrase: could.

Elsewhere on the chart

'Gabby's Dollhouse' fell hard in week two, dropping 66% to roughly $4.7 million. 'The Conjuring: Last Rights' is hanging around the top five. And because the weekend loves chaos, the newly re-released 'Avatar: The Way of Water' might sneak into fifth once the actuals settle. Because of course it might.

Weekend snapshot (estimates)

• 1) Taylor Swift: Official Release Party of a Showgirl — ~$30M debut; A+ CinemaScore and loud social buzz
• 2) One Battle After Another — ~$12M; down 55% from last weekend; budget reportedly around $150M
• 3) The Smashing Machine — ~$6.2M; weakest opening of Dwayne Johnson's career despite career-best reviews
• 4) The Conjuring: Last Rights — rounding out the top five for now
• 5) Gabby's Dollhouse — ~$4.7M in week two after a 66% slide; note: 'Avatar: The Way of Water' re-release could edge into this spot when actuals land

These are early estimates, so expect some shuffling when the final numbers hit. I will be back tomorrow with the full weekend breakdown.