Rotten Tomatoes Reality Check: Avatar: Fire and Ash Faces an Uphill Battle to $2 Billion
Avatar: Fire and Ash lands at a middling 68% on Rotten Tomatoes, signaling well-liked rather than unmissable — a stark contrast to the must-see momentum that once propelled James Cameron’s blockbusters.
Avatar: Fire and Ash just showed up with a 68% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. That is not a disaster, but for a James Cameron tentpole, it is more shrug than seismic. Cameron has made a career out of turning must-see events into record-breakers. This one, at least at first glance, looks more like a solid B than a cultural supernova.
The basics
- Title: Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Director: James Cameron
- Cast: Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Kate Winslet, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore
- Runtime: 3h 17m
- Release date: December 19, 2025 (USA)
Cameron is not done with Pandora. He wants to keep this saga rolling, so Fire and Ash needs to prove the audience is still in. With a 68% (as of today), it sits in the 'well-liked' zone, not the 'drop everything now' zone that helped his previous films bulldoze expectations. Which is why the $2 billion milestone looks like a long shot this time.
Why the $2B club might be out of reach
Critics keep circling the same point: the movie looks incredible, and Pandora keeps expanding, but the storytelling is playing familiar chords. There are capture-and-rescue threads with long windups, and while fans may find comfort in that rhythm, casual viewers might see it as a rerun.
The first Avatar hit like a lightning bolt because nobody had seen anything quite like it. The sequel rode that momentum and the goodwill of a global phenomenon. By round three, it is just harder to make jaws drop on spectacle alone. That does not mean the box office will collapse, but it does make a $2B climb steeper.
Opening weekend tea leaves
The early projections are not grim. Industry estimates peg Fire and Ash for around a $400 million global opening. For context, The Way of Water opened to $441.6 million worldwide back in 2022. So while the ceiling might be lower, the floor is still very sturdy. If the movie has legs through the holidays, Cameron gets the runway he wants.
What the early reviews are actually saying
The consensus so far: it is a technical and visual flex. The movie is also heavier and darker than the previous entries. At the same time, there is a steady drumbeat of criticism about bloat, length, and repetition in the structure. Reviewers keep saying the narrative ambition does not quite keep pace with the VFX wizardry, the action, and the set pieces.
Translation: expect a spectacle that delivers on craft but may not surprise you the way the first film did. If you are already emotionally invested in Pandora, you will likely feel rewarded. If you are a skeptic or a casual visitor, the movie might not give you many new reasons to stick around.
Bottom line: Fire and Ash hits theaters December 19, 2025, at 3 hours and 17 minutes. Cameron may be betting on long legs again. The question is whether audiences have one more lap in them.