Predator Badlands Closes In On A Franchise Box Office Record
The hunt is back on at the box office: Predator: Badlands is pacing for the series’ strongest debut since Alien vs Predator in 2004—and it could set a new franchise opening record.
After a couple of brutal weekends, the box office finally looks awake. The big story: a Predator movie is about to do something it has not done in 20 years.
Predator: Badlands is stalking a franchise high
Disney/20th Century Studios has Predator: Badlands lining up an opening around $37 million, per Deadline. That puts it within striking distance of 2004's Alien vs. Predator, which launched with $38.3 million and has been the franchise benchmark ever since. I figured it would open lower earlier this week, so this is a pleasant surprise.
Context matters, though: once you adjust for inflation, $37 million is on the modest side. Still, for a series where the last entry, Prey, skipped theaters for Hulu, this is a healthy rebound. The movie earned an A- CinemaScore, which usually means good word of mouth. I would not be shocked if 20th Century is very happy right now. It is also not far off from what Alien: Romulus managed last year. Keep these on sensible budgets and they can quietly make money forever.
The PG-13 gamble
The rating is the lightning rod this time. Badlands is PG-13, which some fans are not thrilled about. The strategy seems obvious: bring in younger audiences. Whether it worked is a little murky, especially when you consider Alien: Romulus was rated R and still had a slightly better opening - and that one launched in the summer, which helps.
Next weekend's stress test
All eyes jump to The Running Man next weekend. Edgar Wright's sci-fi actioner is going hard R. If that pops, it may say more about where the ceiling is for grown-up genre fare right now.
Everyone else this weekend
- Regretting You is headed for second with about $6.5 million.
- The Black Phone 2 looks like a distant third at roughly $4.2 million.
- Nuremberg, from Sony Classics, is going semi-wide and should open around $3.5 million.
- Christy, the Sydney Sweeney boxing biopic, does not have numbers yet, but it scored a B+ CinemaScore.
- Die My Love, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson, landed a D+ CinemaScore from opening-night audiences. Given how challenging that descent-into-madness is supposed to be, that reaction is not exactly shocking.
I will have the full weekend rundown once the dust settles tomorrow. What are you seeing?