Oscars 2026 Shake-Up: Sinners and One Battle After Another Surge With Key Precursor Wins
Hollywood’s biggest showdown is here—who will dominate Oscars night?
The 98th Academy Awards are almost here, and the Best Picture race has boiled down to a two-film stare-down: Paul Thomas Anderson's sweeping satire 'One Battle After Another' and Ryan Coogler's prestige horror juggernaut 'Sinners.' One has momentum, the other has a mountain of nominations. Place your bets.
Where the race stands now
'Sinners' leads the pack with a record 16 nominations. 'One Battle After Another' sits right behind it with 13. On paper, that kind of haul can tilt the room. In practice, the path is messier.
Recent wins suggest 'One Battle After Another' is the film to beat. It just took the top prize at the Producers Guild Awards, the Daryl F. Zanuck Award for best feature. That trophy has matched the eventual Best Picture winner five years running, and it has missed only twice in the last decade. Not a lock, but that trend is loud.
The precursors: who won what
At the BAFTAs — yes, the ceremony that got spoofed on live TV a week later — 'One Battle After Another' scooped up Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Supporting Actor (Sean Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, and the big one, Best Film. 'Sinners' still had a strong night with Supporting Actress (Wunmi Mosaku), Original Score (Ludwig Goransson), and Original Screenplay.
The guilds tell a similar story. In addition to the PGA win, 'One Battle After Another' already claimed top honors at both the Golden Globes and the Directors Guild Awards. That is a clean corridor to Oscar night.
Over on the music side, 'Sinners' flexed: at the Guild of Music Supervisors Awards it won Best Music Supervision in Major Budget Films for Niki Sherrod and Best Song Written and/or Recorded for a Film for Raphael Saadiq's 'I Lied To You.' Saadiq also received an Icon Award recognizing his impact across film and music. 'One Battle After Another' picked up Best Music Supervision in a Trailer (Film) and called it a night.
So who is actually ahead?
Right now, it looks like 'One Battle After Another' has the advantage. The PGA, DGA, Globes, and BAFTA Best Film combo is the kind of run studios dream about. That said, 'Sinners' is the scrappy contender with a record nomination count, meaningful craft wins, and a profile that could rally voters late. The PGA stat line gives you confidence; the Oscars love a surprise.
Best Picture field
- Sinners (16 nominations, record-setting)
- One Battle After Another (13 nominations)
- Hamnet
- Frankenstein
- Marty Supreme
- Sentimental Value
- Bugonia
- F1
- The Secret Agent
- Train Dreams
When and where to watch
The 98th Academy Awards air Sunday, March 15 at 7:00 p.m. EST on ABC, with a live stream on Hulu.
The studio subplot
One odd wrinkle: 'Sinners,' 'One Battle After Another,' and fellow Best Picture nominee 'F1' all came from Warner Bros. Discovery, which now looks poised for a Paramount buyout. If that deal happens, it could reshape how these kinds of awards players get made and marketed. For now, the slate speaks for itself. Let them finish this race before the corporate scorecards take over.