Odds-On Favorite to Rule the 2026 Box Office
Odds-makers have a clear favorite to crush 2026’s box office, with one blockbuster already tipped to rule theaters.
Now that the 2025 awards hangover has cleared, the 2026 box office race is already getting weird in a fun way. The early favorite to top the year is not the superhero epic you probably assumed. It is, in fact, a plumber.
The surprise frontrunner
On a major prediction market with real money behind it, bettors currently have The Super Mario Galaxy Movie in pole position to be 2026’s highest-grossing film. As of March 18, more than $1.8 million has been wagered on the market, and Mario’s sequel is leading the pack with a healthy spread.
Why Avengers isn’t running away with it
Yes, Avengers: Doomsday is in the mix, but there’s a catch big enough to swing the odds. The market resolves on December 31, and Avengers: Doomsday is dated for December 18. That gives it roughly two weeks of earnings before the bet closes. Two weeks is nothing for a mega-tentpole’s total, so the numbers are dampened by design. Add in the very real possibility of a date shuffle (Dune Part 3 is currently planted on the same day), and you can see why the market isn’t all-in on Earth’s Mightiest Heroes just yet.
The current odds snapshot
Here’s where the money sits right now (March 18):
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: 37%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 30%
- Avengers: Doomsday: 16% (hampered by the Dec 31 cutoff vs. Dec 18 release)
- The Odyssey: 4%
- Toy Story 5: 3%
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu: 2%
- Dune Part 3: 2%
- Project Hail Mary: 1%
- Michael: 1%
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise of the Reaping: 1%
- Jumanji 3: less than 1%
- Wuthering Heights: less than 1%
- Wicked: For Good: less than 1%
- Scream 7: less than 1%
Mario’s ceiling, by the numbers
A March 13 long-range projection pegs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie for roughly $350 million to $485 million domestic, with a midpoint around $412 million. Even with analysts assuming this sequel won’t have the brand-new novelty of 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie, that first film blasted to $1.36 billion worldwide. A repeat trip past $1 billion for Galaxy wouldn’t be shocking.
Spidey’s shot
Spider-Man: Brand New Day swings into U.S. theaters on July 31, which gives it a long runway if word-of-mouth clicks. For context: Spider-Man: Homecoming did $880 million globally, while the animated entries Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and Across the Spider-Verse pulled in $394 million and $690 million, respectively. Brand New Day flirting with $1 billion is not a stretch.
The Avengers factor (and the fine print)
On paper, Avengers: Doomsday should be the juggernaut. Avengers: Endgame still sits at $2.7 billion worldwide, second all-time. That said, Marvel’s 2025 slate underwhelmed: Captain America: Brave New World landed at $415 million, Thunderbolts* at $382 million, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps at $521 million. The counterpoint is six-plus years of pent-up demand for an Avengers event. If we were talking full-run totals, Doomsday could easily outpace Mario. The market’s year-end cutoff just muzzles its early take.
Why some titles are lagging
The lower-confidence picks make sense when you check receipts. As of March 18, Wuthering Heights has banked $226 million worldwide, Wicked: For Good sits at $533 million, and Scream 7 is at $177 million. None of those look like 2026’s eventual top-grosser, at least from today’s vantage point.
Where this likely goes
If the bet ended when the calendar flips, Mario has the cleanest path. Spider-Man is right there with a mid-summer date and broad appeal. Avengers remains the sleeping giant, but it is being judged on a two-week sprint in December, not the marathon it will run into 2027 if it sticks that date. If any schedule changes hit — especially around that Dec 18 pileup with Dune Part 3 — expect the board to reshuffle fast.