October Box Office Triumphs and Upsets: From Tron: Ares to Black Phone 2
October roared into theaters with sequels, comebacks, and bold experiments—from Black Phone 2 to Tron: Ares—but the month’s star power couldn’t mask a surprising number of misfires. Big names and bigger budgets weren’t enough; audiences wanted hits, not hype.
October showed up with sequels, comebacks, and a few experiments starring people you definitely know. It also reminded everyone that big budgets and famous faces do not equal automatic hits. Some films found their audience. Most didn’t. Here’s where the month shook out at the box office, winners and losers, with the receipts to back it up.
- Tron: Ares — $180 million budget — $107 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Loser
- Black Phone 2 — $30 million budget — $55.7 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Winner
- Roofman — $19 million budget (THR) — $19.9 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Loser
- The Smashing Machine — $35 million budget — $19.6 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Loser
- Good Fortune — $30 million budget (Variety) — $9.1 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Loser
- One Battle After Another — $140 million budget — $170 million worldwide (The Numbers) — Loser
Tron: Ares
On paper, this should have been a slam dunk: Jared Leto fronting a slick, neon-drenched return to the grid with a massive $180 million production price tag (pre-marketing). In practice, audiences vibed with the visuals and the soundtrack, but called out the story for being thin. It had rolled out in most territories by October 10, and as of now it sits at $107 million worldwide (The Numbers). Factor in the kind of marketing spend these things typically get — often another $50–$100 million — and Disney’s latest lightcycle ride is staring uphill. Verdict: loser, for now. It’s still in theaters in the US.
Black Phone 2
Ethan Hawke is back as the Grabber, and while most folks still prefer the first movie, the sequel is doing what Blumhouse does best: keep costs tight and let Halloween do the rest. Budget: $30 million. Since its wide release on October 17, 2025, it has pulled in $55.7 million worldwide (The Numbers). It’s also sliding right into 2025’s horror winning streak alongside Weapons, Sinners, and The Conjuring: Last Rites. With spooky season boosting turnout, this one’s comfortably a winner. In theaters now in the US.
Roofman
Channing Tatum plays a former USAR non-commissioned officer who slips into a life of crime and secretly camps out inside a toy store. Yes, that premise is as odd as it sounds, and yes, Tatum reportedly gives a career-best performance — critics have been into the layers he brings. The numbers are less forgiving. Since its October 10, 2025 release, it has earned $19.9 million worldwide (The Numbers) on a $19 million budget (THR). With distribution and marketing to cover, it probably needs something closer to $35–$40 million to breathe. Until then, it’s a loser. Still playing in US theaters.
The Smashing Machine
Dwayne Johnson’s Mark Kerr biopic is the critical high point of his career so far — it even scored a standing ovation at Venice. That applause didn’t translate at the box office. Despite a $35 million budget and a domestic release on October 3, 2025 (USA Today), the film sits at $19.6 million worldwide (The Numbers). Between the niche appeal, muddled targeting, and marketing that didn’t take, it looks out of gas. Emily Blunt co-stars, and the movie is still in US theaters, but it’s a loser commercially.
Good Fortune
Keanu Reeves plays an angel in Aziz Ansari’s comedy with Seth Rogen also along for the ride. Budget’s $30 million (Variety). It opened between October 16 and 17, 2025 and still has territories left to go, but so far it’s at $9.1 million worldwide (The Numbers). The premise and humor clicked for some, just not enough. Even with Reeves on the poster, it’s struggling. Another loser. Now in US theaters.
One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson directing Leonardo DiCaprio in a black comedy thriller should be a layup for awards season, and that part may still pan out. Financially? Different story. With a $140 million budget (marketing not included), the movie has made $170 million worldwide (The Numbers). Premium screens, a big promo push — none of it moved the needle enough. It’s been in theaters since late September and the plan seems to be a long run, plus Oscar buzz that could pay off later. For now, it’s still a loser on the money front. In US theaters.
Bottom line: only one clear winner in October, and it’s the thrifty horror sequel. Everyone else learned the hard way that style, stars, and spend don’t guarantee a return. Awards season could throw a lifeline to a couple of these, but the month’s lesson is simple: keep the budgets honest and time your release wisely.