Netflix and Warner Bros Deal Kicks Off Cinema's Three-Year Endgame

Streaming’s surge and shrinking theatrical windows are reshaping moviegoing. With a Netflix–Warner Bros. acquisition looming, Deadline’s early 2026 domestic box office outlook hints at more turbulence ahead for theaters.

The theatrical vs streaming tug-of-war is not slowing down. Deadline just dropped some fresh projections, and with all the noise around a potential Netflix-Warner Bros. deal, exhibitors are understandably watching the horizon like hawks. Here is where the domestic box office stands, where 2026 could land, and what Netflix is promising to do about it.

2026 is lining up as a $9B year - and maybe the runner-up of this era

Deadline pegs the 2026 domestic box office around $9 billion. If that holds, it would likely sit just behind 2023, which topped out at roughly $9.36 billion when you adjust previous years for inflation. For context, the market has been holding steady in the mid-to-high $8 billions for three years straight, which is sturdier than it feels given the constant stream-first drumbeat.

2026 also has actual heat on the release calendar: think The Odyssey, Avengers: Doomsday, Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three, and more. Big swings, broad demos. The kind of slate theater owners actually circle in pen.

One wrinkle: 2025 was originally floated at around $9B too, but the current read is closer to $8.8-$8.9B. Still solid, especially for a year that was not stacked with the most obvious all-timer crowd-pleasers, but a hair under the earlier chatter.

The scorecard so far

• 2025: ~$8.8B expected, 663 films released, top domestic title so far is A Minecraft Movie
• 2024: $8.6B, -3.8% year over year, 677 films released, top domestic title was Inside Out 2
• 2023: $9.36B, +20.9% year over year, 592 films released, top domestic title was Barbie
• 2022: $7.9B, +64.4% year over year, 502 films released, top domestic title was Top Gun: Maverick
• 2021: $5.0B, +112.1% year over year, 442 films released, top domestic title was Spider-Man: No Way Home
• 2020: $2.6B, -81.4% year over year, 456 films released, top domestic title was Bad Boys for Life

2023’s rebound was powered by an unusually wide mix of movies that actually got different audiences off the couch: Oppenheimer and Barbie on one end, Anyone But You and Wonka on the other. Note: 2025 is still in motion, so that number can shift. Earlier years are inflation-adjusted for apples-to-apples.

The Netflix-WB question everyone keeps asking

Alongside the projections, there is growing anxiety about what happens to theater traffic if Netflix does end up absorbing Warner Bros. The more pessimistic read making the rounds: theaters may have roughly three strong years left before a combined Netflix-WB could put real pressure on ticket sales. That timeline is speculative, but you can see why the nerves are jangling. Netflix has historically treated theatrical as a nice-to-have or awards-season tool, not a business pillar.

What Netflix is actually saying out loud

Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos stepped in to calm everyone down, promising that if the deal goes through, the company will respect WB’s theatrical playbook and standard release windows. His message was pretty explicit:

"There’s been a lot of talk about theatrical distribution, so we want to set the record straight: we are 100% committed to releasing Warner Bros. films in theaters with industry-standard windows."

"While this hasn’t been part of our business model until now, we are looking forward to bringing this expertise from Warner Bros. to Netflix."

Translated: Netflix knows theaters are part of the WB brand and says it will keep those runs intact. If you are wondering, industry-standard windows right now usually means something around 45 days before a movie hits home platforms, with exceptions for outliers.

So will this help or hurt theaters?

If Netflix truly follows the WB model, exhibitors can keep breathing normally. If the company slowly shortens windows, reroutes titles to its app, or treats theaters like a marketing expense, that is when foot traffic gets hit. For now, the numbers say the domestic box office has a workable floor in the high $8 billions, and 2026 has the goods to push back to $9B. Whether that holds under a Netflix-WB umbrella is the real test.

Gut check time: do you think Netflix elevates WB’s theatrical game or slowly sands it down? I have my suspicions, but I am open to being pleasantly surprised.