James Cameron Hints at Avatar 3 Profit Margin — Is Avatar 4 Now Inevitable?
As Avatar: Fire and Ash—the third chapter in the juggernaut franchise—hits theaters, James Cameron tells Variety the saga’s future hinges on ticket sales, with more sequels riding on this film’s box office.
Avatar: Fire and Ash just landed, and James Cameron is already talking about how (and if) this juggernaut keeps going. Short version: it comes down to money, even for Pandora.
Cameron on the future: it lives or dies on Avatar 3 making real money
In a new chat with Variety, Cameron was blunt that Avatar 4 happening the way he wants depends on Fire and Ash turning an actual profit, not just grossing big numbers. He also hinted he might not direct every single sequel from here on out.
"There are others that I may or may not direct. And the big swing in all of this is, do we make any money with Avatar 3? I mean, we’ll make some money. But the question is, what kind of a profit margin, if any, is there, and how much of an inducement is that to continue on in this universe? Or maybe we wait a while until we figure out how to bring costs down."
That caution makes sense when the budget is reportedly around $400 million. Early revenue tallies (per The Numbers) suggest Avatar 3 is on track to hit the financial benchmarks Disney and Lightstorm need, but Cameron is clearly watching not just totals, but margins. Translation: don’t expect them to sprint into production on the next one if the math is fuzzy.
Avatar 4 is written, and the studio’s reaction was... colorful
This isn’t a case of waiting around for a script. Cameron says he wrote Avatar 4 and 5 during the long haul between the 2009 original and 2022’s The Way of Water. The world kept expanding in the comics, too, while the films were being engineered. And when he handed Disney the Avatar 4 script, the response was not subtle.
"I can’t tell you the details, but all I can say is that when I turned in the script for 2, the studio gave me three pages of notes. And when I turned in the script for 3, they gave me a page of notes, so I was getting better. When I turned in the script for 4, the studio executive, creative executive over the films wrote me an email that said, 'Holy f*ck.' And I said, 'Well, where are the notes?' And she said, 'Those are the notes.' Because it kind of goes nuts in a good way, right?"
So if Fire and Ash clears the profit bar, Cameron’s already got a script the studio is hyped about. Whether he directs it himself is the other open question he put on the table.
The trend that’s starting to show
Avatar has always been a visual flex: cutting-edge tech, world-class artists, environments no one else is pulling off. That’s still true. The flip side is the bigger the spectacle gets, the more it spotlights how familiar the story beats are starting to feel. Three movies in, the messaging is consistent, the themes haven’t shifted much, and the plots can feel like variations on the first film’s template.
Fire and Ash is impressive on the big screen. It’s also pretty straightforward in ways you can see coming. If Cameron’s right about Avatar 4 going wild in a good way, that might be the shake-up this series needs.
Quick stats
- Movie: Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Director: James Cameron
- Major cast: Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana, Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Kate Winslet
- Rotten Tomatoes: 68% Tomatometer | 91% Audience Score
- Reported budget: $400 million
- Box office so far: $136 million (per The Numbers)
Avatar: Fire and Ash is now screening in cinemas worldwide.