Is Timothée Chalamet About to Pull Off a Marty Supreme Oscar Upset?
Timothee Chalamet looked unstoppable for Oscar gold with Marty Supreme when nominations dropped — now his sure thing is suddenly in doubt.
For once, awards chatter felt like a breather. After years of strikes and loud, necessary fights over fair pay and AI weirdness, SAG-AFTRA’s rebranded Actor Awards rolled in with some good old-fashioned suspense — capped by a genuine shocker: Timothee Chalamet did not win Best Actor. Michael B. Jordan did.
The Actor Awards upset, in a nutshell
Chalamet has been racking up love for playing Marty Mauser, a hustler and table tennis prodigy, in the 2025 sports comedy-drama Marty Supreme. He even won the Golden Globe for it just weeks before this ceremony, which had many people penciling him in as the Oscar frontrunner. The Actor Awards threw a wrench in that. Jordan took Best Actor for Sinners, and suddenly that straight-line narrative curved.
Does this tank Chalamet’s Oscar shot?
Not necessarily, but the road got bumpy. The Golden Globes can be shiny, but they are rarely a reliable crystal ball for the Academy. Meanwhile, another key bellwether already went sideways for Chalamet: he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo, who was honored for I Swear, playing a Scottish man living with Tourette’s syndrome. So if you’re looking for a clean sweep story, this is not that season.
No, this isn’t a sudden 'everyone hates Timothee' thing
There’s been buzz that Chalamet rubbed some folks the wrong way after an earlier acceptance speech for his turn as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. That clip did the rounds because he didn’t exactly do the aw-shucks routine:
"really in pursuit of greatness [...] I know people don’t usually talk like that [...] but I want to be one of the greats."
He also thanked his mom and shouted out his idols — Marlon Brando, Daniel Day-Lewis — so it wasn’t pure chest-thumping. Is that speech the reason he’s losing key prizes this season? Highly doubtful. Voters are staring down a stacked year, and the board keeps resetting.
This year is crowded, period
2025 handed out heavy hitters: the record-breaking Sinners, plus One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and a few more titles elbowing for space. In that kind of field, momentum swings come fast.
Where the tea leaves point right now
If you buy the idea that the Actor Awards often line up with Oscar outcomes, then Jordan has the inside track. Sinners also happens to be tearing up the season with a history-making 16 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. That scale of support helps.
- Golden Globes: Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
- BAFTA: Robert Aramayo (I Swear)
- Actor Awards (SAG-AFTRA): Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
- Oscars: still in play
Bottom line: Chalamet’s chances are slimmer than they looked a month ago, but not gone. This season’s a rally, not a procession. Or, to quote his own paddle-swinging alter ego:
"I have a purpose. [...] If you think that’s some kind of blessing, it’s not."