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Movies

Is 28 Years Later Box Office Bomb Already Inevitable?

written by Leo Hartwell
Is 28 Years Later Box Office Bomb Already Inevitable?
Image credit: Legion-Media

Let's not sugarcoat it — 28 Years Later might already be fighting for its financial life, and the odds aren't exactly stacked in its favor.

But does that automatically make it a bomb? Let's run the numbers, look at the industry chatter, and figure out where Sony's zombie gamble is really headed.

The Hard Numbers (So Far)

  • Production Budget: $60 million
  • Worldwide Box Office: $138.3 million
    • Domestic: $65.7 million
    • International: $72.6 million
    • Estimated Break-Even Point: Between $120 million and $150 million (once you factor in marketing and distribution cuts)
    • Marketing Costs: Not disclosed, but Reddit estimates peg it at around $50 million

      • By traditional metrics, a movie needs to gross about 2 to 2.5 times its production budget to break even. So technically, 28 Years Later has crossed that lower threshold. But it's hardly the runaway success that keeps studio execs in their jobs.

      What Reddit's Saying: Panic, Perspective, and Pre-Orders

      Reddit's box office hawks have been all over this. One comment summed it up:

      "There was a bit of a panic in the week after release because of how much the numbers dropped, but since then it's kept a core audience interest that's beat expectations."

      Another observation that stuck out:

      "It cost $60 million to make, but with marketing etc, the estimated break-even point is between $120 and $150 million."

      Some users pointed fingers at stiff competition — particularly from M3gan and Superman — but others noted that 28 Years Later "just ran out of audience" after the first weekend. And for a horror sequel made 20 years after the last installment? That's not exactly shocking.

      Then there's the $40 million Netflix deal for franchise streaming rights — a tidy cushion that could quietly push the film into profitability once all ancillary sales are counted.

      Will It Get to Streaming Fast?

      If Sony sticks to its usual playbook, here's what to expect:

      • Standard Sony VOD Window: 4 to 6 weeks post-theatrical release
      • Estimated VOD Release: Late July 2025

      Sony's last wide release, Until Dawn, hit VOD in under a month — but that wasn't backed by the kind of opening 28 Years Later pulled off, however briefly. So expect a longer wait as they squeeze whatever's left in theaters.

      What About the Trilogy?

      This is supposed to be the first in a trilogy — with The Bone Temple already wrapped and the third waiting on a greenlight. Danny Boyle himself admitted:

      "We haven't got the money for the third one yet. It will depend how the first one does, I guess."

      If you believe Reddit, the future of the trilogy depends less on the box office and more on Cillian Murphy's star power and the streaming potential. The Netflix deal and future streaming revenue could quietly grease the wheels for a third film — if Sony decides the prestige and fan loyalty is worth the moderate risk.

      Audience Reaction: Love It, Hate It, Or Laugh Through It

      Feedback has been all over the place:

      • Some praised it as "the best horror movie in decades."
      • Others said it completely fell apart halfway through.
      • A few thought the tone was uneven, with one viewer noting, "the theater was either laughing or snickering and I didn't blame them."

      And yet, some fans are still going multiple times, preordering the collector's edition, and openly campaigning for the trilogy to continue.

      Bottom Line: Is It a Bomb?

      Short answer? No — but it's not a hit either. 28 Years Later is sitting awkwardly in the middle: financially cautious, critically divisive, but with enough core support to keep the franchise on life support. Whether Sony sees that as a win is another question.

      The Outlook

      • Best-Case: Modest profit after streaming, home video, and international trickle-in. Trilogy survives.
      • Worst-Case: Barely breaks even, trilogy limps to a finish via streaming deals rather than theatrical releases.
      • Most Likely: Sony plays it safe, finishes the trilogy, but don't expect any studio to bankroll a 28 Decades Later.

      If you're waiting for the next movie — good news: Bone Temple drops in January. But don't hold your breath for part three unless Sony thinks there's still meat left on this franchise's bones.