Inside the Box Office Bust: Why Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine Didn’t Hit Hard

Well, that did not go how anyone expected. Dwayne Johnson finally took his big dramatic swing with The Smashing Machine last weekend, critics loved it, Venice gave it a standing ovation, and then the box office said... nah. The movie opened to $6 million in the U.S., which is a faceplant compared to the $12–$14 million range a lot of folks were projecting going in, per The Hollywood Reporter. Rave reviews, soft receipts. Let’s unpack why.

What the movie actually is

The Smashing Machine is a biopic about MMA legend Mark Kerr, with Johnson playing Kerr as he navigates the highs of his career and the lows of addiction, pain, and messy relationships. It is directed by Benny Safdie and released by A24, and it is absolutely not a guns-blazing crowd-pleaser. Think raw, R-rated character study.

Plenty of critics are calling this one of Johnson's best roles.

So why did it stumble?

• The Rock brand clash: Most people hear Dwayne Johnson and expect Fast & Furious, Jumanji, or at least some quippy four-quadrant spectacle. Instead, they got a bruising, downbeat addiction drama. Great for showing range; not exactly on-brand for how audiences usually spend a Friday night with him.
• It ran into Taylor Swift, of all things: The Smashing Machine opened the same weekend as Taylor Swift's The Official Release Party of a Showgirl, which was only announced two weeks before its three-day limited run and still blasted off with $33 million domestic plus $13 million overseas for a $46 million global total (Variety). The Smashing Machine had its date locked months ago, and there was no ducking that surprise juggernaut.
• A big budget for a niche story: Variety pegs the budget around $50 million, which is hefty for a specialty drama about a figure who is huge in MMA circles but not a household name like Muhammad Ali or Mike Tyson. That puts pressure on word of mouth and buzz to do the heavy lifting, and A24 generally plays the prestige lane, not the broad blockbuster lane.
• Kerr is a legend, but not widely known: The film needed either the subject's fame or the package to sell it. Johnson brings star power, and his work here has sparked early awards chatter, but Mark Kerr's name does not ring out for casual moviegoers. The story has all the ingredients for great cinema; it is just not a natural crowd-puller.
• Tricky marketing tightrope: How do you sell a grim, R-rated fighter portrait to Rock fans while also convincing the arthouse crowd to show up for Dwayne Johnson? Awards positioning can get you glowing pull quotes, but it does not always convert to tickets on opening weekend. In this case, it did not.

The numbers and the fallout

Opening weekend: $6 million domestically (Variety). Projections had it at $12–$14 million (THR), so it landed at roughly half of the low end. Given that budget and the limited four-quadrant potential, this is, for now, Johnson's worst financial outing.

Could it rebound?

Maybe. Movies like this can get a second wind on streaming or during awards season if the campaign catches fire. The reception is there: it got that Venice standing ovation, it is sitting at a 7/10 on IMDb and 73% on Rotten Tomatoes as of now, and Johnson's performance is earning real respect. But in theaters, at this moment, the math is the math.

Where to see it

The Smashing Machine is now playing in U.S. theaters. Director: Benny Safdie. Distributor: A24.

Curious what you think: was a Mark Kerr biopic always destined to struggle at the box office, or did this one just pick the worst possible weekend to step into the cage?