The Bond rumor mill is back on full blast. The next 007 movie is moving forward, and the betting markets think they already know who is picking up the Walther PPK. I buy the momentum, but not the certainty.
What is actually happening with the next Bond movie
Amazon MGM Studios has a new James Bond film in development. Steven Knight (the Peaky Blinders creator) is writing the script, and Denis Villeneuve (Dune, Blade Runner 2049) is set to direct. One wrinkle: Villeneuve may still be deep in the Dune: Part III grind, which is scheduled for December 18, so the Bond timeline might stretch.
Where the betting stands right now
As of March 17, 2026, prediction markets and UK odds shops are clustering around one name, with a couple of serious challengers keeping things honest:
- Kalshi: Callum Turner leads at 50%, with Josh O'Connor at 20%, Jacob Elordi at 17%, Aaron Taylor-Johnson at 9%, and Harris Dickinson at 5%. Former headline favorites Idris Elba and Henry Cavill are hanging on with 5% and 2%, respectively.
- Polymarket: Turner is on top at 31%. The catch is the leading outcome is actually 'No Bond chosen' at 54%, because the market closes June 30 — bettors are basically saying no announcement in the next three months. Beyond Turner, it is a light spread: Elordi at 4%, Taylor-Johnson at 3%, Cavill at 2%, and Robert James-Collier at 2%.
- Coral (UK odds as of March 13): Turner at 4-5; Taylor-Johnson and Theo James both at 3-1; Cavill at 6-1; and Jack O'Connell surging to 8-1.
Turner plays it cool, Elordi makes the rounds
Asked at the Berlin International Film Festival about Bond, Callum Turner kept it close to the vest:
'Very early.'
That is a non-answer that sounds a lot like someone who knows where the conversation is headed. Meanwhile, a late-January report had Jacob Elordi meeting with Villeneuve and the producers. Elordi just scored a Best Supporting Actor nomination at the 2026 Oscars for Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein, which only helps his stock.
What the studio seems to want
A trade report from June 2025 pointed to Amazon MGM aiming for a British actor under 30. That framing pulls Henry Cavill, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Idris Elba to the edges of the board. Back then, Tom Holland and Harris Dickinson were said to be on a wishlist, which tells you how much the field has shifted in a year.
The shape of the race
Another recent industry piece lined up Turner and Elordi as the top two contenders, while stressing Turner is not a lock. That tracks with the odds: Turner has the heat, Elordi has the meetings and awards buzz, and everyone else is fighting over the scraps.
The timing problem
Polymarket’s 'No Bond chosen' favorite suggests the announcement window probably sits beyond late June. Layer in Villeneuve’s Dune obligations, and the cautious money says the reveal takes its time. Betting slips may be bullish on Turner, but until the suits sign and seal it, keep both Turner and Elordi in pencil.