F1 Wasn't Really an Oscars Surprise — Voters Saw It Coming
Buckle up—the Best Picture race may be headed for a shocker. Momentum is wobbling, buzz is building for a late challenger, and an Oscar-night upset suddenly feels very real.
When Apple Original Films rolled out F1: The Movie and it started creeping into real Oscar talk, I was a little baffled. Fun, slick, Brad Pitt in a race car? Sure. But an across-the-board Academy favorite in 2026? Then I started reading how voters are actually talking about it, and yeah… it tracks.
Why this one is clicking with voters
- It hits that old-school studio sweet spot. Voters describe it as the kind of polished, no-fuss entertainment they missed: glossy, technically sharp, and built to play. Think closer to Ford v Ferrari than Everything Everywhere All at Once.
- It lines up with the Academy’s comfort zone. A big chunk of members came up in an era where crowd-pleasers mattered more than online discourse. F1 is familiar in form, professional in execution, and easy to recommend.
- Preferential ballots reward the movie most people like, not just the one a smaller group loves. Broadly liked and rarely hated is a dangerous combo in this system.
- People are busy. Plenty of voters don’t get to everything. A star-driven (Brad Pitt), accessible, high-craft film is an easy watch to check off with zero homework required.
- Crafts wins can snowball. F1 is a real threat in editing, sound, and visual effects. If it starts picking up trophies below the line, Best Picture suddenly doesn’t look far-fetched.
"I f---ing love that movie."
That’s from one anonymous voter. Not exactly consensus language, but it sounds like a comfort pick. And comfort picks tend to rise when the field is split between international contenders, tougher arthouse titles, and movies that demand more emotional or intellectual investment. F1 asks basically nothing beyond: have a good time.
From surprise nominee to plausible winner
I initially had F1 in the 'why is this here?' bucket. After digging into the ballots chatter, it’s more 'why wouldn’t it be?' The Academy has always had room for prestige comfort food: not revolutionary, but expertly made and easy to back. That doesn’t mean it’s a lock for Best Picture or any category, but in a year where the passion is scattered across too many titles, being the movie most people rank high without a fight can be the strongest place to sit.
Bottom line: F1 popping up in Best Picture was surprising at first, but at this point the bigger twist might be if it doesn’t overperform on the night. We’ll find out when the Oscars air March 15 as part of the 2026 TV schedule.
Where to watch
If you still need to catch up, F1: The Movie is streaming on Apple TV+. It’s $12.99 a month with a 7-day trial. Offer available globally, prices vary.