Can Tron: Ares Cash In? The Box Office Number Jared Leto’s Sequel Needs to Break Even
Disney’s Tron: Ares powers into theaters this weekend with a strong global launch expected. But with a $180 million budget, the neon sequel needs roughly $400 million worldwide just to break even — and the real threshold could be higher.
Disney is booting up Tron: Ares in theaters this weekend. Early tracking says the launch could be solid. The part nobody loves to talk about: what it actually has to earn to make financial sense.
The money math, without the hand-waving
Production reportedly ran about $180M. A common industry rule of thumb is that a movie needs roughly 2.5x its production budget to break even once you split ticket sales with theaters and pay for marketing (per Deadline). That would imply something in the ballpark of $400M to get whole, but that number gets slippery fast.
If you assume Disney also spent around $100M on marketing (a pretty standard big-studio push), and you apply that same 2.5x logic to the combined cost, you wind up staring at a much higher line: closer to $700M. Not everyone does the math that way, but it gives you the steep end of the hurdle.
What the opening looks like
Tracking is encouraging. Projections have Tron: Ares landing a $80M–$90M worldwide opening frame, split pretty evenly between a $40M–$45M domestic start and a comparable take overseas. Advanced ticket sales are already at $7M, which is a healthy runway if walk-up business shows up (all via Deadline).
Disney is going wide on premium formats: IMAX, Dolby, 3D, ScreenX, D-Box, and 4DX are all in play. Internationally, the rollout is big. Early reads look upbeat in Germany and across Latin America, while the outlook is softer in parts of Asia.
The early reactions are... complicated
The first wave out of the El Capitan Theater premiere was mixed. Critics are currently sitting at 52% on Rotten Tomatoes. The consensus so far: the movie looks and sounds gorgeous — the Nine Inch Nails score is getting a lot of love — but the storytelling is catching flak. Over on IMDb, it is at 6.3/10 as of now. None of this is shocking if you remember how this franchise tends to land with reviewers.
Context from Legacy
Tron: Legacy had a similar reception back in the day, and still opened to $44M domestic and legged out to roughly $400M worldwide (per Deadline). That makes $400M a realistic stretch target for Ares if audiences turn out. Pushing to the $700M neighborhood would be a much steeper climb — not impossible, but that would require strong word of mouth and serious overseas help.
- Budget: ~$180M production
- Break-even rule of thumb: ~2.5x budget; with a rough $100M marketing assumption, the high-end break-even math points toward ~$700M
- Opening weekend forecast: $80M–$90M worldwide; $40M–$45M domestic; similar overseas
- Pre-sales: $7M so far
- Premium formats: IMAX, Dolby, 3D, ScreenX, D-Box, 4DX
- International read: stronger in Germany and Latin America; softer across parts of Asia
- Scores right now: Rotten Tomatoes 52%; IMDb 6.3/10
- What works vs. what doesn’t: visuals and the Nine Inch Nails soundtrack praised; story criticized
- Legacy comp: Tron: Legacy opened to $44M domestic, finished around $400M worldwide
- Key players: Director Joachim Rønning; cast includes Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Gillian Anderson, Jeff Bridges
Bottom line
If those opening numbers hit and the premium formats do their job, Tron: Ares could plug into that $400M zone. Clearing the loftier $700M break-even scenario would take momentum we haven’t seen yet from the early chatter.
Release date
Tron: Ares opens October 10, 2025 in the U.S.