Can Timothée Chalamet Derail Leonardo DiCaprio’s Bid for a Second Oscar?
Prediction market Kalshi tips Timothée Chalamet at 52% to claim 2026 Best Actor for Marty Supreme, setting up a showdown with Leonardo DiCaprio over his turn as table tennis icon Marty Reisman.
We are very early, but the 2026 Best Actor race already has a fun twist: Timothee Chalamet vs. Leonardo DiCaprio. A prediction market has Chalamet narrowly in front, and the chatter around both films makes this feel like one of those years where anything could break late.
Where the early odds sit
Kalshi's prediction market currently favors Chalamet to win Best Actor for playing table tennis legend Marty Reisman in 'Marty Supreme'. Here is the snapshot they are showing right now:
- Timothee Chalamet as Marty Reisman in 'Marty Supreme' — 52%
- Leonardo DiCaprio as Resistance Father in 'One Battle After Another' — 23%
- Wagner Moura as Armando in 'The Secret Agent' — 5%
Why everyone is buzzing about Chalamet
Chalamet anchoring a movie about a ping-pong icon sounds quirky on paper, but the performance is apparently landing with both critics and crowds. If 'Marty Supreme' holds, he is on track to be a three-time Best Actor nominee. The movie opens in theaters on December 25, 2025, which is prime awards-time positioning and exactly the kind of late-year bow that can ignite a campaign.
That said, leading the market in October-December chatter is not the same as winning in March. Once the wider releases hit, critics circles weigh in, and the last wave of screenings happens, momentum can snap in a different direction fast.
Who is in his way
This field is stacked, and yes, some of the names being floated are eyebrow-raising. The heavyweights include DiCaprio, Denzel Washington, and Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, who headlines A24's 'The Smashing Machine' as MMA legend Mark Kerr. There is also talk Chalamet could be jousting with actors he once idolized, including Daniel Day-Lewis, which is the kind of rumor that makes you tilt your head, but it is floating around.
The younger wave is not soft either. Jeremy Allen White stars in the Bruce Springsteen biopic 'Deliver Me From Nowhere', and Paul Mescal plays Shakespeare in 'Hamnet'. And the early awards whisper network is tossing out names like Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaac, Colin Farrell, Ethan Hawke, Matthew McConaughey, Miles Teller, Brad Pitt, and George Clooney. For Chalamet, this is not just about giving a great performance; it is about proving the Academy will actually crown it over a pile of established favorites.
Why DiCaprio could still snatch this
DiCaprio has the combination the Academy tends to respond to: pedigree, patience, and the right collaborator. 'One Battle After Another' is a Warner Bros release directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, and it opened in September 2025. DiCaprio plays a resistance member trying to save his daughter, and the trailer leans into a blend of comedy and drama that feels closer to his vibe in 'Don't Look Up' and 'Once Upon a Time in Hollywood'. That mix, paired with PTA, is a potent set-up for voters.
It has been nearly ten years since DiCaprio won his Oscar for 'The Revenant', and his turns in 'Don't Look Up' and 'Killers of the Flower Moon' did not land acting nominations even as those films made the Best Picture lineup. Translation: he is due for another serious look. Also worth noting: 'One Battle After Another' is already playing in theaters, so his campaign is happening in real time while 'Marty Supreme' is still waiting in the wings.
The bottom line
Chalamet has the early edge, DiCaprio has the veteran runway, and the rest of the field is deep enough to wreck anyone's plans overnight. We have months of screenings, guild votes, and critics lists ahead.
So, who are you taking for Best Actor in 2026? Call your shot in the comments.