Box Office Forecast: Can The Running Man Outrun a Slow Start?
Edgar Wright’s The Running Man is poised for a soft start, with early tracking pointing to a modest debut unlikely to jolt the weekend box office.
This is usually when studios start rolling out the heavy hitters. And yes, next weekend brings Wicked: For Good, which should finally put some real fuel back in the box office tank. This weekend though? Two pricey newcomers that look wobbly, and a fall season that has already been full of soft landings is likely getting another one.
The Running Man: Big swing, shakier landing
A few months back, I would have bet on Edgar Wright turning Stephen King’s The Running Man into a can’t-miss hit. Big budget, fresh momentum for Glen Powell after Anyone But You — it all lined up. But the buzz has fallen off a cliff. Critics are giving Wright the harshest reviews of his career, and having seen it this week, I get why. The direction is sharp and the cast is doing the work, but the script is the weak link. That matters.
There’s also a bit of Powell saturation happening. He’s talented, no question, but when audiences feel like someone’s everywhere at once (Sydney Sweeney fans know the drill), they tend to bristle. Put it all together, and I’m not seeing an opening much north of $20 million — and it might not even win the weekend.
Now You See Me, Now You Dont: Sneaky contender
Lionsgate’s third Now You See Me has never been a massive domestic franchise, but overseas these movies are money. The tracking on this one is decent, and it could absolutely make things uncomfortable for The Running Man. I’m expecting a close fight for the top slot with projections around $16 million.
Predator: Badlands: The hold to watch
Do not sleep on this one. Word of mouth is strong, and if the drop is gentle, it could rally and swipe first place from both newcomers. More likely, it threads the needle and slots in just ahead of Now You See Me with about $18 million — but the upside is there.
Keeper: A tough launch for a genre favorite
Osgood Perkins directing should be good news for horror fans, but Neon is giving this the dreaded 'suicide release' — no advance press screenings. That usually signals trouble. I’m not expecting much heat out of the gate.
One more wide release
Regretting You is also in the mix, but on a smaller scale.
Weekend predictions
- The Running Man: $20 million
- Predator: Badlands: $18 million
- Now You See Me, Now You Dont: $16 million
- Keeper: $8 million
- Regretting You: $3.5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Tell me below.