Barack Obama’s Favorite Movie Could Push Leonardo DiCaprio Past Timothée Chalamet in the Oscar Race

Barack Obama just dropped his annual favorites list, and yes, he has thoughts on movies. The headline: his top pick for 2025 is Paul Thomas Anderson's black comedy action thriller 'One Battle After Another' starring Leonardo DiCaprio. Not exactly a small endorsement heading into the height of awards season.

Obama's list, and why it matters right now

Obama posted his 2025 picks on Medium, naming eleven films that stood out to him this year. 'One Battle After Another' sits at the top. He also shouted out 'Sinners', 'It Was Just an Accident', and 'The Secret Agent'. That alone would be good PR for any movie, but dropping it now, with Oscar voting around the corner, adds a little extra juice to DiCaprio's campaign.

The awards race wrinkle: Leo vs. Timmy

Heading into the home stretch, Timothee Chalamet has been the popular pick to win Best Actor for 'Marty Supreme'. He's already got two Best Actor nominations under his belt before turning 30: 'Call Me by Your Name' (2018) and 'A Complete Unknown' (2025), losing to Gary Oldman and Adrien Brody, respectively. DiCaprio, of course, won his Best Actor Oscar in 2016 for 'The Revenant'. If 'One Battle After Another' keeps surging, we might be headed for a real photo finish.

'One Battle After Another' at a glance

• Release date: September 26, 2025
• Writer/director: Paul Thomas Anderson
• Based on: 'Vineland' by Thomas Pynchon
• Cast: Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor, Chase Infiniti
• Rotten Tomatoes: 95%
• Box office (via The Numbers): $205 million
• Golden Globes: 9 nominations ahead of the January 11, 2026 ceremony, including Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy; Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson); Best Actor - Musical or Comedy (Leonardo DiCaprio); Best Actress - Musical or Comedy (Chase Infiniti); Best Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn, both nominated); Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor); Best Screenplay (Paul Thomas Anderson); Best Original Score (Jonny Greenwood)
• Also up for multiple Critics' Choice Awards

So where do the odds sit?

According to Kalshi's prediction markets: DiCaprio currently sits around 20% to win the Oscar, with Chalamet at 55%. For the Globes, DiCaprio is around 28% and Chalamet about 48%. Translation: Leo is in the hunt, but Timmy is still the guy to beat as of today. That said, Obama putting 'One Battle After Another' at the top of his list is the kind of late-year nudge campaigns dream about.

What the movie is actually doing

The film has been a legit hit with both critics and audiences, and it has already picked up a handful of early trophies. The tone is a tightrope: a comedy thriller that still lands with weight, which is probably why it's being talked about as a Best Picture frontrunner. And the team is stacked: Anderson behind the camera and on the script, plus a Jonny Greenwood score that is also in the awards conversation.

What the actors say it is

DiCaprio told the BBC the movie taps into where the culture is at without turning into a lecture. As he put it:

It holds a mirror up to society and talks about the divisiveness in our culture and the fact that there's so much polarity... It's political without making it feel like medicine.

He also said the film finds the humanity in its main characters, which tracks with the way audiences have latched onto it. Benicio del Toro echoed that vibe, calling it entertaining and fun while still saying something about the moment and carrying a lot of heart.

The bottom line

Obama's nod doesn't hand DiCaprio a second Oscar, but it certainly doesn't hurt. Between the Globes haul, strong reviews, real box office, and the industry goodwill that follows a PTA project, 'One Battle After Another' is positioned exactly where you want to be in late December: everywhere. Whether that knocks Chalamet off the front-runner perch is the part we find out in the next few weeks.

'One Battle After Another' is now streaming on HBO Max.