Avatar: Fire and Ash vs. Avatar 2: Is $2 Billion in Sight?

James Cameron just wrapped the year the way he likes it: at the top of the box office. Avatar: Fire and Ash held the crown over Zootopia 2 and Marty Supreme for the final weekend of the year, and it did it with the kind of hold that makes studio accountants sleep well.

Box office snapshot

Weekend two barely budged, dropping about 33% from its opening frame. That is a seriously sturdy hold for a giant effects movie in late December. For context: The Way of Water fell 52% on its second weekend. The 2009 original barely dipped at all by comparison (an absurd 1.8% slide) — a unicorn of a hold that nothing else in the series is likely to match.

With Friday in the books, the four-day holiday frame is estimated at $84 million. Current totals: $153.7 million domestic, $390.6 million international, $544.3 million worldwide.

Does that mean $2 billion is a lock? Not exactly. Fire and Ash opened at $89.1 million domestic — higher than the first Avatar’s $77 million, but well short of Way of Water’s $134.1 million. The first film’s runaway worldwide legged it to $2.9 billion on waves of ecstatic word-of-mouth; Way of Water topped out at $2.343 billion. Fire and Ash isn’t getting the same raves from critics, which makes a straight shot to $2B tougher, even with Cameron’s famously long legs over the holidays.

Big picture: this is the strongest Christmas corridor since the pandemic, with the market expected to hit around $342.3 million for the week. Also new in the mix: Marty Supreme debuted to $25.7 million.

• Domestic opening: Avatar (2009) $77M; The Way of Water (2022) $134.1M; Fire and Ash (2025) $89.1M
• Domestic box office: Avatar $785.2M; Way of Water $688.4M; Fire and Ash $153.7M (so far)
• International box office: Avatar $2.138B; Way of Water $1.655B; Fire and Ash $390.6M (so far)
• Worldwide gross: Avatar $2.9B; Way of Water $2.343B; Fire and Ash $544.3M (so far)
• Rotten Tomatoes (critics): Avatar 81%; Way of Water 76%; Fire and Ash 66% (310+ reviews)
• IMDb score: Avatar 7.9/10; Way of Water 7.5/10; Fire and Ash 7.5/10

So how are people liking it?

On the critic side, Fire and Ash is Cameron’s lowest-rated theatrical release to date: 66% on Rotten Tomatoes (from 310+ reviews as of now) and 62/100 on Metacritic (50 critics). The audience score tells a different story at 90%, which tracks with what you see on opening weekends — people are into the spectacle even if the reviews are mixed.

What the reviews generally agree on: it looks jaw-dropping, the characters and action work, and Oona Chaplin pops as the new character Varang. The recurring gripe is the story — simple, a bit thin, and not as emotionally rich as some wanted. A few high-profile critics went hard on it, calling it the weakest of the trilogy, visually less immersive than expected, or a lot of high-tech wandering without much forward motion. On the flip side, others praised it as a big-screen knockout that, even if it doesn’t top the original or improve on the second film, still delivers a premium immersive ride with plenty left in the tank.

Worth noting: this thing was not cheap. Budget is north of $400 million, firmly in the 'one of the most expensive movies ever' club.

What is Fire and Ash actually about?

After two films built around Na'vi vs. human colonizers, Cameron pivots to Pandora’s internal dynamics. We meet two new Na'vi cultures — the Tlalim (aka the Wind Traders) and the Mangkwan (aka the Ash People) — and the movie finally explores the darker corners of this world instead of just its serene postcard views.

"If you think of fire as hatred, anger, violence, that sort of thing, and ash is the aftermath. So what’s the aftermath? Grief, loss, right? And then what does that cause in the future? More violence, more anger, more hatred. It’s a vicious cycle."

Who is in it?

Returning: Zoe Saldana and Sam Worthington as Neytiri and Jake Sully, plus Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Giovanni Ribisi, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Matt Gerald, Kate Winslet, Cliff Curtis, Bailey Bass, Jemaine Clement, and David Thewlis. New standout: Oona Chaplin as Varang, leader of the Ash People. Also back are the younger generation characters played by Britain Dalton, Jack Champion, and Trinity Jo-Li Bliss.

The bottom line

Fire and Ash is doing what a late-December Cameron release does: holding strong while the holiday moviegoing kicks into high gear. The path to $2B isn’t as clear as last time, but with legs like this and audiences broadly on board, don’t count it out yet.

Avatar: Fire & Ash is now in theaters after opening December 19, 2025. The first two films, Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water, are streaming on Disney+.