Avatar: Fire and Ash Sparks a Box Office Comeback
Despite a softer launch than its predecessor, Avatar: Fire and Ash is already roaring back, flashing serious box office legs.
Heard the chatter that Avatar: Fire and Ash opened softer than The Way of Water? True, the opening was about $46 million lighter. But if you were expecting a crash-and-burn, that is not what is happening here.
Where the box office stands right now
Before Christmas Eve, Fire and Ash pushed past $450 million worldwide. That matters because we are heading into the most forgiving stretch of the year for big movies: December 24 through January 3 is historically a box office cheat code. If a film has any legs at all, this is when it shows them, and Fire and Ash clearly does.
Temper the Avatar-sized expectations
Let’s be honest: the bar for this franchise is absurd. The first two Avatar movies sit at #4 and #7 all-time domestically, and #1 and #3 internationally. When you live up there, anything under $600 million domestic can look like a comedown. But that is a franchise perception problem, not a Fire and Ash problem. By normal human standards, this thing is performing extremely well and settling into major hit territory, even if it never touches Cameron’s previous stratosphere.
Could it be 2025’s box office champ?
Very possible. Right now, the domestic leader for 2025 is A Minecraft Movie with $423 million. Given the momentum Fire and Ash is showing, it has a real shot to leapfrog that and finish as the year’s top grosser, even if it does not challenge the prior Avatar high-water marks.
Holiday runway: what to expect next
Over the core holiday corridor, Fire and Ash is on track for about $70–80 million. Competition is light, more like background noise than a fistfight:
- Anaconda: projected $20 million
- Marty Supreme: about $12 million after strong per-screen averages last weekend in NY/LA in limited release
- Song Sung Blue: around $15 million
- The Housemaid: also roughly $15 million
Then the week after
The week following the holiday crush is traditionally just as sturdy for theaters. If Fire and Ash tacks on another $50–60 million during that window, it should clear the holiday corridor near $300 million domestic. From there, with January looking pretty empty in terms of direct threats, a final domestic total in the $400–450 million range feels likely.
The short version
Is Avatar: Fire and Ash a disappointment? No. Calling it that ignores the holiday surge that is about to kick in and the reality that almost nothing can compete with Cameron’s own past box office insanity. This is a very healthy run by any sane metric.
What are you seeing over the holidays? Drop your picks below.