Avatar: Fire and Ash Set for a Massive Domestic Debut — Still Below The Way of Water

James Cameron is about to test how much juice Pandora still has. Early numbers for Avatar: Fire and Ash suggest a big domestic debut — big enough to make accountants smile, even if it lands just a notch below the last one.

Opening weekend outlook

Per Deadline, Fire and Ash is currently tracking at around $110 million for its opening weekend in the U.S., with the broader range sitting between $100 million and $130 million. That is a rock-solid start by any normal standard. It is, however, a shade under where The Way of Water kicked off in 2022 with $134.1 million.

Context: this franchise prints money

For perspective: The Way of Water went on to become the third-highest grossing movie ever with $2.3 billion worldwide. The original Avatar still sits at number one all-time with $2.9 billion. So even a slightly softer opening does not mean much if word of mouth hits and the film has legs — which is kind of this series' whole thing.

Bob Iger saw it early — and apparently loved it

Cameron says Disney CEO Bob Iger watched an earlier cut and was all-in. At the time, the movie ran 3 hours and 23 minutes without credits. Since then, Cameron says he trimmed roughly 18 to 20 minutes. During a Zoom with other execs tossing out notes, Iger reportedly waved those off and went to bat for the film. Cameron kept a few receipts worth quoting:

'But it is magnificent. It is magnificent.'

'I love this film.'

'Yeah, you know, I did not have a problem with that.'

That is a rare bit of behind-the-scenes candor: the studio boss not only liking a three-hour-plus rough cut, but also shutting down other notes in real time. Cameron says he took the hint: meeting over.

Release date

Avatar: Fire and Ash hits theaters December 19.