Avatar: Fire and Ash Races Past a Major Box Office Milestone, Yet $2 Billion Remains Elusive

James Cameron did the most James Cameron thing possible: his third Avatar movie just cruised past $1 billion while still in its third weekend. The question now isn’t "is it big?" It’s "can it muscle its way to $2 billion," and that’s the debate everyone’s having while it’s still packing theaters.

Where the money is coming from

• Global total after 18 days: $1.083 billion (about $306 million domestic, $777.1 million international)
• That makes it the No. 3 movie of 2025 so far, jumping past Lilo & Stitch at $1.038 billion, and trailing only Ne Zha 2 ($2.244 billion) and Zootopia 2 ($1.588 billion)
• To hit the $2 billion club, it still needs roughly $916.9 million more
• International weekend: $129.6 million across 51 markets, down 29% from the prior weekend
• Top international hauls to date: China ($138M), France ($81M), Germany ($64M), Korea ($44M)
• Japan is the outlier, actually up 26% week-to-week, while other major territories eased off: Australia (-14%), Brazil (-19%), UK (-26%), Mexico (-27%), Italy (-41%)
• U.S. rollout: opened to $89.16M on 3,800 screens, then held No. 1 with $63.08M in weekend two and $40.02M in weekend three, for $306.02M domestic so far

How it’s holding overseas

The international picture is doing a lot of the heavy lifting again. A 29% weekend-over-weekend dip is healthy at this scale, and the country-by-country story is mostly steady holds. Japan turning upward mid-run is unusual in a good way, suggesting word of mouth there is stronger than initial buzz.

The domestic picture

Stateside, the legs are good, not jaw-dropping. The opening and third-weekend numbers trail The Way of Water’s $134M opening and $67M third weekend, which matters because those comps fueled Way of Water’s late-game surge to $2B. This time, the road is steeper, even with robust overseas support.

So does it get to $2B?

It’s possible, but it’s not a layup. The film is still mid-run, the drops are controlled, and international markets are healthy. But catching that last $900M-plus will require excellent holds, some market expansions to overperform, and probably another Japan-style surprise or two. It’s the tightrope part of the campaign.

The Cameron scoreboard

This is Cameron’s fourth movie to clear $1B, after Titanic, Avatar, and The Way of Water. Whether it becomes his fourth $2B title is the big swing left to watch. For the franchise accountants out there: the trilogy (to date) sits at a combined $6.35 billion worldwide.

What the movie is

Story-wise, this one sticks with Jake Sully and Neytiri’s family as they clash with the Ash People, led by Varang. It’s PG-13, runs a marathon-y 3 hours and 17 minutes, and yes, audiences are still showing up for Pandora even at that length.

Bottom line: the milestone is real, the momentum is solid, and the $2B chase is still alive — just not guaranteed. Keep an eye on those overseas holds and whether domestic can stabilize above expectations. If any filmmaker knows how to leg out a marathon run, it’s Cameron.