Avatar: Fire and Ash Eyes a Record Debut — Can It Outgross Avatar 2?

Avatar: Fire and Ash is tracking to a big opening weekend that, by normal blockbuster standards, is huge — and by Avatar standards, pretty normal. Think steady, not seismic.

The projection

Per Deadline, the third Avatar is aiming for a worldwide opening weekend between $340 million and $380 million. Overseas is expected to do the heavy lifting, with an estimated $250 million to $275 million. That leaves around $90 million domestic for the weekend — more on that label in a sec.

If those numbers stick, Fire and Ash would notch the second-biggest opening of the year, behind Zootopia 2.

How it stacks up to The Way of Water

Compared to Avatar: The Way of Water, Fire and Ash is starting a step behind. TWOW opened to $444 million worldwide and $310 million overseas. If Fire and Ash lands in the projected $340 million to $380 million global range, that’s roughly $64 million to $104 million lower than TWOW’s launch.

Presales are also trailing: Fire and Ash is about 30% behind The Way of Water’s pace. The source pegs TWOW’s presales at $134.1 million, which is a massive figure either way you slice it.

Why the softer start

The biggest factor is timing. The Way of Water arrived 13 years after the original, which created a once-in-a-generation appetite. Fire and Ash hits just three years later. Early chatter is familiar — visuals and scale are getting love — but the initial ratings are a touch lower than last time. That can shave some urgency off opening weekend.

The long game (because it’s Avatar)

These movies aren’t typically front-loaded. The pattern is long legs and steady holds, not the giant spike-then-crash you see with plenty of other tentpoles. So yeah, Fire and Ash could still run down The Way of Water’s total — it just won’t try to do it in weekend one.

By the numbers

• Avatar: Fire and Ash worldwide opening weekend: $340M-$380M (projected)
• Avatar: Fire and Ash overseas opening: $250M-$275M (projected)
• Avatar: Fire and Ash domestic opening weekend: about $90M (projected) — note: this is weekend, even though some charts label it as opening day, which doesn’t track with the rest of the math
• If projections hold, Fire and Ash would be the year’s No. 2 opening, behind Zootopia 2
• Gap to Avatar: The Way of Water’s global opening: Fire and Ash would be $64M-$104M lower than TWOW’s $444M
• Avatar: The Way of Water overseas debut: $310M
• Presales: Fire and Ash is about 30% behind TWOW; the source cites $134.1M for TWOW presales
• Opening day comps (as cited): Avatar (2009) $26M, The Way of Water $53M
• Avatar (2009) opening weekend (domestic): $77M
• Current worldwide totals: Avatar $2.9B, The Way of Water $2.3B
• Current scores: IMDb — Avatar 7.9/10, The Way of Water 7.5/10, Fire and Ash 7.6/10; Rotten Tomatoes — Avatar 81%, The Way of Water 76%, Fire and Ash 69%

Release date

Avatar: Fire and Ash opens December 19, 2025 in the US.