Avatar: Fire and Ash Aims for $100–$130M Opening as James Cameron Charts the Franchise’s Future

James Cameron may be publicly hedging about how long he keeps returning to Pandora, but the early read on Avatar: Fire and Ash suggests the box office still wants more blue aliens. The threequel lands in theaters worldwide on December 19, and tracking points to an opening weekend in the $100–$130 million range, with $110 million as the middle-case scenario.

The opening math (and why it matters less for Avatar)

Yes, that would be a bit lower than Avatar: The Way of Water, which bowed to $134.1 million. But this franchise has a habit of finding new gear after opening weekend. Cameron movies linger, especially Avatar movies. They play to almost everyone — not just the sci-fi diehards — and they swallow the premium formats. Expect IMAX and other PLF screens to be heavily booked with Fire and Ash, which only helps those legs.

Cameron is already thinking about the endgame

On The Town with Matthew Belloni podcast (transcribed by SuperHeroHype), Cameron sounded confident about the film’s financial prospects while also leaving the door open to step away if the appetite fades.

'I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?'

He said he is absolutely prepared to pause the series if audiences tap out. He has been living in Avatar world for about 20 years — or 30 if you count the origin story: he first wrote it in 1995, there was a brief wave of interest, then he shelved it for a decade before getting serious in 2005. If Fire and Ash ends up being the stopping point, he is fine with that. The movie will intentionally leave one thread unresolved, and if another sequel does not happen, he plans to finish that story as a follow-up novel.

Who made Fire and Ash, and who is in it

• Writers room: Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver (co-wrote The Way of Water and Fire and Ash), Josh Friedman (assigned to write Avatar 4), and Shane Salerno (assigned to write Avatar 5).
• Cast: Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, Giovanni Ribisi, Kate Winslet, Cliff Curtis, Joel David Moore, CCH Pounder, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, Jack Champion, Bailey Bass, Filip Geljo, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, David Thewlis, and Oona Chaplin as Varang, leader of the antagonistic Ash Clan.
• Also returning: Payakan, the tulkun (yes, the giant whale), is back in the mix.

So, will Fire and Ash bank enough to keep this run going? We will see soon, but the early signs say Pandora still sells — and I would not bet against Cameron plus a wall of IMAX showtimes.