2026 Oscars: The Odds-On Favorites to Take Home Gold
Oddsmakers have crowned early favorites for the 2026 Oscars, with dark horses closing fast. From Best Picture to the acting races, here’s how the odds stack up—and where the smart money sees an upset coming.
One week out from the 98th Academy Awards, the race has mostly sorted itself into a few steamrollers and a couple knife fights. The show airs Sunday, March 15, on ABC and Hulu. After the nominations dropped in late January and the Globes and the Actor Awards wrapped, here is where the odds have settled across every category right now.
Quick read on the board: 'One Battle After Another' is rolling in Best Picture and Director, Ryan Coogler looks rock solid in Original Screenplay for 'Sinners', Jessie Buckley is lapping the Best Actress field for 'Hamnet', and 'Frankenstein' is towering over the crafts. Best Actor is the spicy one: Timothee Chalamet vs. Michael B. Jordan is close enough to keep palms sweaty.
How this was pulled: snapshot percentages from three places people actually wager money or reputation on — Kalshi, Polymarket, and a major awards poll — listed in that order. All numbers are as of March 6, 2026. '
- Best Picture (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
One Battle After Another — 76%, 77%, 76.26%
Sinners — 21%, 19%, 19.81%
Hamnet — 3%, 2%, 1.29%
Train Dreams — The Secret Agent — Sentimental Value — 2%, 1%, 0.45%
Marty Supreme — 2%, 1%, 0.30%
Frankenstein — Bugonia — F1 — - Best Director (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) — 91%, 93%, 94.01%
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) — 8%, 6%, 4.55%
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) — 2%, 1%, 0.86%
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) — Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) — - Best Actor (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) — 52%, 52%, 43.43%
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) — 38%, 36%, 40.87%
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) — 7%, 5%, 11.85%
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) — 4%, 7%, 2.47%
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) — 3%, 2%, 1.38% - Best Actress (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) — 96%, 96%, 95.83%
Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) — 4%, 3%, 2.80%
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) — Emma Stone (Bugonia) — 2%, 1%, 0.58%
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) — 2%, - Best Supporting Actor (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) — 73%, 72%, 61.53%
Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) — 19%, 19%, 27.50%
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) — 8%, 7%, 7.78%
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) — 1%, 1%, 2.26%
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) — 2%, 2%, 0.93% - Best Supporting Actress (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Amy Madigan (Weapons) — 44%, 42%, 46.27%
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) — 30%, 32%, 30.03%
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) — 22%, 21%, 21.96%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) — 3%, 2%, 1.45%
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) — - Best Adapted Screenplay (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) — 95%, 95%, 93.88%
Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell (Hamnet) — 4%, 4%, 4.30%
Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams) — Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) — Will Tracy (Bugonia) — - Best Original Screenplay (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) — 96%, 95%, 95.51%
Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) — 2%, 2%, 2.61%
Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) — 3%, 1%, 0.99%
Jafar Panahi, Nader Saivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian (It Was Just an Accident) — Robert Kaplow (Blue Moon) — - Best Casting (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Francine Maisler (Sinners) — 74%, 76%, 87.77%
Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another) — 16%, 15%, 5.05%
Gabriel Domingues (The Secret Agent) — 6%, 5%, 4.63%
Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) — 5%, 4%, 1.77%
Nina Gold (Hamnet) — 3%, 1%, 0.78% - Best Cinematography (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) — 60%, 57%, 25%
Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) — 31%, 29%, 51.71%
Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams) — 10%, 11%, 22.46%
Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein) — 2%, 1%, 0.63%
Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme) — 2%, 1%, 0.20% - Best Costume Design (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) — 92%, 92%, 93.43%
Ruth E. Carter (Sinners) — 7%, 5%, 4.95%
Malgosia Turzanska (Hamnet) — 2%, 1%, 1.06%
Deborah L. Scott (Avatar: Fire and Ash) — 1%, 1%, 0.28%
Miyako Bellizzi (Marty Supreme) — 2%, 1%, 0.28% - Best Film Editing (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) — 75%, 75%, 86.29%
Stephen Mirrione (F1) — 17%, 14%, 9.14%
Michael P. Shawver (Sinners) — 8%, 7%, 3.45%
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) — 2%, 2%, 0.90%
Olivier Bugge Coutte (Sentimental Value) — - Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey (Frankenstein) — 90%, 89%, 96.24%
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry (Sinners) — 9%, 6%, 2.58%
Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg (The Ugly Stepsister) — 2%, 1%, 0.62%
Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu (Kokuho) — 1%, 2%, 0.45%
Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein (The Smashing Machine) — 1%, 2%, 0.11% - Best Production Design (Gold Derby)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (Frankenstein) — 90.18%
Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne (Sinners) — 7.71%
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (Hamnet) — 1.09%
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis (Marty Supreme) — 0.63%
Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino (One Battle After Another) — 0.40% - Best Music (Original Score) (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Ludwig Goransson (Sinners) — 93%, 92%, 95.52%
Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another) — 6%, 6%, 2.53%
Alexandre Desplat (Frankenstein) — Max Richter (Hamnet) — 2%, 1%, 0.63%
Jerskin Fendrix (Bugonia) — - Best Music (Original Song) (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
"Golden" by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park (KPop Demon Hunters) — 91%, 90%, 89.20%
"I Lied to You" by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson (Sinners) — 10%, 9%, 9.71%
"Dear Me" by Diane Warren (Diane Warren: Relentless) — "Train Dreams" by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner (Train Dreams) — "Sweet Dreams of Joy" by Nicholas Pike (Viva Verdi!) — - Best Sound (Gold Derby)
Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta (F1) — 86.94%
Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker (Sinners) — 8.53%
Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas (Sirat) — 3.32%
Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern (Frankenstein) — 0.63%
Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor (One Battle After Another) — 0.57% - Best Visual Effects (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett (Avatar: Fire and Ash) — 94%, 91%, 94.37%
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean (Sinners) — 3%, 3%, 4.18%
Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson (F1) — 3%, 3%, 1.16%
David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould (Jurassic World Rebirth) — Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin (The Lost Bus) — - Best Animated Feature Film (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
KPop Demon Hunters — 94%, 94%, 94.24%
Zootopia 2 — 6%, 5%, 4%
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain — 2%, 1%, 0.94%
Arco — 2%, 1%, 0.53%
Elio — - Best Documentary Feature (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
The Perfect Neighbor — 64%, 64%, 83.22%
Mr. Nobody Against Putin — 19%, 18%, 12.06%
The Alabama Solution — 8%, 8%, 3.29%
Come See Me in the Good Light — 6%, 6%, 1.15%
Cutting Through Rocks — 3%, 2%, 0.27% - Best International Film (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Sentimental Value — 67%, 66%, 69.75%
The Secret Agent — 23%, 23%, 27.65%
It Was Just an Accident — 10%, 9%, 1.75%
The Voice of Hind Rajab — 2%, 2%, 0.68%
Sirat — 2%, 1%, 0.17% - Best Animated Short Film (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
Butterfly — 49%, 47%, 74.35%
The Girl Who Cried Pearls — 32%, 29%, 17.14%
Retirement Plan — 13%, 14%, 3.87%
Forevergreen — 9%, 7%, 3.45%
The Three Sisters — 3%, 3%, 1.19% - Best Documentary Short (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
All the Empty Rooms — 58%, 56%, 84.03%
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud — 20%, 19%, 10.32%
The Devil Is Busy — 11%, 11%, 3.58%
Children No More: Were and Are Gone — 4%, 9%, 1.15%
Perfectly a Strangeness — 9%, 3%, 0.91% - Best Live Action Short (Kalshi, Polymarket, Gold Derby)
A Friend of Dorothy — 20%, 20%, 53.87%
Two People Exchanging Saliva — 42%, 40%, 34.39%
The Singers — 23%, 26%, 9%
Jane Austen's Period Drama — 8%, 5%, 1.61%
Butcher's Stain — 6%, 8%, 1.13%
Bottom line: if these numbers hold, expect a big night for 'One Battle After Another', a loud night for 'Sinners', and a crafts sweep for 'Frankenstein', with Best Actor the last real swing vote.