Zootopia 2 Poised to Pounce Back to No. 1 at the Box Office

Last weekend got weird in a fun way: Five Nights at Freddy's 2 stormed in with a $64 million opening and knocked Zootopia 2 out of first place. A lot of folks figured Zootopia 2 would cruise through a second weekend on top. Not so much.

What just happened

Freddy's 2 didn’t just overperform; it flipped expectations, though maybe we should have seen it coming. The first movie opened to a beefy $80 million. The catch, as always with horror, is the front-loading. The original fell a brutal 76% in its second weekend, and the sequel looks set for a similar cliff dive. Expect around $18 million in week two.

Money math and franchise odds

Even with that steep slide, Freddy's 2 is still on pace to clear $100 million domestically. On a reported $36 million budget, that’s a tidy piece of business once you add overseas and VOD. Translation: this franchise is profitable. A third movie feels less like a question and more like a scheduling issue.

This weekend's picture

Zootopia 2 should grab the top spot back with about $25 million. It’s otherwise a quieter frame. Among new releases, the only one showing real audience interest is Cineverse’s remake of Silent Night, Deadly Night. It won’t break out, but it should sneak into the top five around $5 million, slotting behind Wicked: For Good, which is dropping faster than expected but still printing money.

Also likely in the top five: 20th Century Studios' Ella McCay, even as the reviews keep wilting — mine included.

Next week: the big swing

Enjoy the breather while you can. Avatar: Fire and Ash opens next week, and the overall box office should jump in a hurry.

My numbers for the weekend (and yes, Zootopia 2 is about $25 million — that $64 million figure you may have seen belongs to Freddy's 2's opening):

• Zootopia 2: $25 million
• Five Nights at Freddy's 2: $18 million
• Wicked: For Good: $7 million
• Silent Night, Deadly Night: $5 million
• Ella McCay: $3 million