Who Will Win Best Director at the 2026 Oscars? Our Definitive Power Rankings

A year after Sean Baker’s Anora triumph, the 2026 Oscars Best Director race is shaping up as a star-studded brawl—marquee auteurs collide with long-overdue visionaries in what could be the most unpredictable showdown in years.

The 2026 Best Director race already feels like a knife fight in a tuxedo. One year after Sean Baker took it for Anora, we’ve got a stack of heavy hitters, a couple of long-overdue names, and a few films that could crash the party if they land at the right moment. Everyone here has a distinct voice; some just happen to be surfing a bigger wave right now.

1. Guillermo del Toro — Frankenstein
   Del Toro has a gift for finding the human pulse inside the nightmare, and his Frankenstein sounds like the full expression of that obsession. The images look hand-built, the emotions raw, and Jacob Elordi reportedly plays the creature with a mix of fury and gentleness that sneaks up on you. The Academy already has him on the shelf for The Shape of Water, but prediction boards still have him a notch lower than you’d expect, likely thanks to timing and a crowded field. That said, a 'moderate chance' for del Toro is still code for: do not get comfortable. Current scores: IMDb 7.6; Rotten Tomatoes 85%.

2. James Cameron — Avatar: Fire and Ash
   Cameron builds giant, risky movies that somehow eat the box office for lunch. He’s a past winner for Titanic and has two of the biggest films ever made under his belt. The spoiler here: Best Director voters have historically leaned toward intimate prestige fare over mega-spectacle, which is why he’s sitting lower on most lists even as industry buzz gets loud. If this chapter brings the emotional punch he keeps hinting at, he could crash the top tier fast. Never bet against a veteran who knows how to turn tech into story. Current scores: IMDb not yet released; Rotten Tomatoes not yet released.

3. Chloe Zhao — Hamnet
   Zhao pulled the Best Picture/Best Director double with Nomadland, and Hamnet has lived near the top of early prediction lists for months. The film zeroes in on William Shakespeare and Agnes after their son’s death, with Jessie Buckley sticking in your head and Paul Mescal’s Shakespeare turning the internet into a puddle. Repeat directing wins are rare, so the film needs steady momentum all season, but Zhao’s awards magnetism is real. If voters lock into the grief and beauty here, she isn’t just in — she’s hovering near the front. Current scores: IMDb 8.2; Rotten Tomatoes 87%.

4. Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
   Trier never shouts; he lingers. Love, memory, the way life slips by while we overanalyze — that’s his lane, and this film is right in it. He’s not as established with Academy voters as some of the names above, but the respect level is high and the work is reportedly hitting critics right where it hurts. The Academy has been increasingly open to international and emotionally layered storytelling lately, which keeps Trier squarely in the mix. If the season keeps breaking his way, a nomination is well within reach — and once you’re in, anything can happen. Current scores: IMDb 7.9; Rotten Tomatoes 97%.

5. Jafar Panahi — It Was Just an Accident
   This one won the Palme d'Or at Cannes 2025, which immediately plants a flag in the awards-season soil. Panahi’s films are usually framed as International Feature players, and non-English language work still has a tougher climb in Best Director — but that gap has narrowed. In the last seven years, directors tied to Best International Feature nominees showed up in Best Director six times. With France submitting the film in International Feature, visibility is massive. When a filmmaker this respected shows up, voters pay attention. Current scores: IMDb 7.7; Rotten Tomatoes 97%.

6. Park Chan-wook — No Other Choice
   Park has been one of the coolest stylists on the planet for years, and this time he turns unemployment into a darkly funny character study about masculinity, economic anxiety, and the absurdities of capitalism. It’s reportedly pristine visual filmmaking — the kind that makes people lean forward just to drink it in. Prediction lists tend to keep him in the lower half, which is exactly why he’s dangerous: if the passion builds, he can rocket up fast. Current scores: IMDb 8.0; Rotten Tomatoes 100%.

7. Ryan Coogler — Sinners
   Coogler’s been climbing rung by rung, and Sinners sounds like another leap — a big, ambitious blockbuster with a personal core. That balance is hard to nail; the word is he nails it. He’s on nearly every major Best Director prediction list, and there’s history hanging in the air: if he wins, he’d be the first Black filmmaker to take Best Director, and only the seventh Black director ever nominated. If the movie’s momentum holds, he could plant himself right in the center of the race. Current scores: IMDb 7.6; Rotten Tomatoes 97%.

8. Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
   PTA has circled the podium for years. This might be the one that finally tips. The film blasted out with raves and a strong Gothams showing, which vaulted him to the top of most early lists. He’s one of the few who can split the difference between art-house elegance and mainstream juice — the exact sweet spot Oscar voters love to reward. The chatter has been loud, bordering on euphoric. If critics groups and the big guilds keep that energy alive, his long-awaited win comes into focus. Right now, he’s the one everyone else is chasing. Current scores: IMDb 8.2; Rotten Tomatoes 94%.

Nothing’s decided until ballots are in, but that’s the lay of the land at the moment. Who do you have winning Best Director in 2026?