The Real Reason James Cameron Isn’t Committing to Avatar 4 Yet

James Cameron just put a little cold water on the idea that Avatar 4 is a sure thing. Yes, he mapped out a five-film arc and even shot some early footage, but after Avatar: Fire and Ash, he says the next step depends less on critics and more on whether audiences actually show up over time.

So where does Avatar 4 stand?

Cameron told Deadline he still gets the pre-release jitters, even after all these years.

"I am always on pins and needles before a film opens. It is less about the reviews for me than whether people show up or not."

That anxiety is part of why he has not locked in Avatar 4. He has shot a bit of material already, mostly scenes with younger characters, because the next chunk of the story jumps forward in time. Think of the saga like this: he views The Way of Water and Fire and Ash as a connected pair, similar to Dune and Dune: Part 2, and anything beyond that would kick off a new creative phase with a time skip.

It is not just money, it is motivation

On the business side, Cameron keeps saying "if" about Avatar 4 and Avatar 5. If Fire and Ash has legs at the box office and the economics make sense, then great — but he is not pretending it is guaranteed. And he is also weighing the artistic itch. In another interview, he made it clear that his own interest in staying inside Pandora matters just as much as spreadsheets.

Part of that is because this run has been a marathon. He finished the scripts for The Way of Water and Fire and Ash back in 2015, started filming in 2017, and now, after Fire and Ash, he feels like he just closed a 10-year chapter. As he put it, this stretch completes one big story. He could walk away here, or keep going — he has left both doors open.

The other thing on his mind: Terminator

While he weighs Pandora's future, Cameron is eyeing a new Terminator movie and a few other projects. Translation: even if Avatar 4 happens, it might not hit its currently penciled-in date of December 21, 2029.

• 2015: Scripts for The Way of Water and Fire and Ash completed
• 2017: Production begins on the sequels
• Now: Fire and Ash is out; Cameron calls this the end of a 10-year arc
• Future: Avatar 4 and 5 are possible, but hinge on long-tail box office and Cameron's own creative priorities; Avatar 4 could slip past December 21, 2029

Bottom line: Cameron has the roadmap and some footage in the can, but he is waiting to see if audiences keep buying tickets — and whether he still wants to live on Pandora for another decade.