Superman's $225M Budget Meets Harsh Reality in Box Office Projections
James Gunn's Superman lands in theaters July 11, and while early ticket sales caused Fandango to crash (allegedly), the first box office projections are painting a more complicated picture.
According to Deadline, the film is currently tracking for a $90–125 million opening. Not bad—but short of the $125–150M range some were whispering after Early Access sales went live. And with a $225 million production budget (closer to $300M after marketing), Warner Bros. was probably hoping for higher.
Awareness metrics tell a mixed story. In unaided awareness, Superman's doing great—scoring a 30, better than Top Gun: Maverick before its $126.7M debut. But in first choice awareness—aka, the stat that actually drives people to buy tickets—Superman trails behind Thor: Love and Thunder, The Batman, and Guardians Vol. 3.
Even more awkward: it's tracking 71% lower than Captain America: Brave New World and 64% behind The Batman in first-choice interest. For a movie with this much hype, that's a little wobbly.
Still, don't count it out yet. The marketing blitz isn't done, and reviews will likely drop just before release. If they're glowing, it could give Gunn's reboot the late push it needs.
The benchmark to beat? Zack Snyder's Man of Steel, which opened at $116.6 million back in 2013. If Superman flies higher than that, it'll probably get called a win. If not, brace yourself for headlines asking whether DC just stumbled again.
With just weeks to go, Superman's box office fate is up in the air—and Warner Bros. is hoping it lands closer to Superman '78 than The Flash.