Predator: Badlands Box Office Just Decided the Franchise’s Future

Predator: Badlands is the rare case of a franchise course-correct that lands with critics and fans but gets chewed up by the box office. Dan Trachtenberg has clearly figured out how to make this series feel alive again. The audience showed up... just not enough to make the math pretty.

The creative win

Badlands marks the Predator IP's first proper theatrical outing since 2018's misfire, and it keeps Trachtenberg's hot streak going. The movie is playing well across the board: an 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, a 95% audience score, and a 7.4/10 on IMDb. On top of that, it just became the highest-grossing entry in the franchise, finally edging past Alien vs. Predator's worldwide haul. Win, win, win, right?

The money problem

'PREDATOR: BADLANDS is topping out at just $180M at the global box office, leaving @Disney on the hook for an ~$80M loss, after spending $105M on production + ~$70M in marketing. The third-biggest box office bomb of 2025.'

- Global Box Office, Dec 9, 2025

That read is harsh, but the gist tracks with standard studio accounting. Variety pegs Badlands' production budget at $105 million. Add roughly $70 million in marketing, and you're into it for about $175 million before theaters get their cut. The old rule of thumb says you want roughly 2.5x your production budget to break even in theatrical. In this case, that's about $262.5 million. Badlands is on pace to finish just north of $180 million worldwide, and it does not look like it's cracking $200 million.

• Production budget: $105 million (Variety)
• Marketing spend: about $70 million
• Worldwide gross so far: $180.2 million
• Franchise milestone: highest-grossing Predator movie, topping Alien vs. Predator
• Estimated theatrical break-even target (rule of thumb): around $262.5 million
• Takeaway: creatively strong, financially short of break-even in theaters

Context worth flagging

Timing was not friendly. Badlands released into a crowded November where Wicked 2 and Zootopia 2 ate up a lot of oxygen. Those are giant sequel machines with four-quadrant appeal, and Predator is a brand reintroducing itself to theaters after rebuilding goodwill on streaming. In other words, Badlands had to fight uphill for casual audiences.

Does that make it a disaster for Disney? Not necessarily. The recent Predator run has done real business on Disney+ (and Hulu), and once Badlands hits digital, it should pull in meaningful revenue. It's the kind of behind-the-curtain economics that don't make headlines but absolutely matter to whether a franchise keeps going.

What this means for the next one

Disney now has a choice: keep rolling theatrical dice or steer the franchise back to streaming, where it just worked. Given how well Trachtenberg has handled the brand, he's expected to be back, and he has been brainstorming ideas for a follow-up.

Complication: if the next movie goes back to an R rating (which fits this IP and is definitely on the table), that can help the film's identity but usually shrinks the audience and makes the box office math tougher. On the flip side, Trachtenberg keeps reinventing the Predator playbook with each outing, so you can probably count on another fresh angle regardless of format.

Personally, I hope Disney doesn't abandon theaters entirely. On a less congested release calendar, and with the goodwill Badlands just earned, this series could still put up healthier numbers.

Predator: Badlands is currently playing in theaters. What did you think of it?