Oscars 2026: Definitive Nominations Predictions and Odds for Every Category
Who’s surging, who’s slipping, and where the smart bets lie—our Oscars 2026 nominations preview breaks down every category with fresh odds, sleeper picks, and the storylines set to shape awards season.
Oscar nomination morning is coming in January, which means it is officially Guessing Season. With the Golden Globes and Critics Choice nods out, the field has tightened up, and the usual awards diehards have crunched the numbers. I pulled together the blended prediction odds from Gold Derby as of December 11, 2025, which mixes ballots from experts, editors, and users. If you want a clean snapshot of where things stand today, this is it.
How to read this: I listed every contender that grabbed at least 10% support in the polling. These are nomination odds, not win odds. Also, the Best Original Song category is light on data right now, so that one is more of a watchlist. And yes, the Academy finally added a Casting Oscar this year. About time.
Category-by-category odds (as of Dec 11, 2025)
- Best Picture:
Sinners - 96.69%
One Battle After Another - 96.57%
Hamnet - 96.01%
Marty Supreme - 94.43%
Sentimental Value - 94.31%
Frankenstein - 89.83%
It Was Just an Accident - 89.27%
Bugonia - 52.80%
Wicked: For Good - 52.40%
Train Dreams - 50.34%
The Secret Agent - 44.37%
Avatar: Fire and Ash - 42.15%
No Other Choice - 22.19%
Jay Kelly - 18.27% - Best Director:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) - 96.48%
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet) - 94.00%
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) - 87.21%
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) - 75.12%
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) - 74.03%
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) - 28.75%
Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) - 15.40% - Best Actress:
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) - 96.34%
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) - 93.28%
Rose Bryne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) - 77.49%
Emma Stone (Bugonia) - 64.84%
Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) - 55.19%
Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) - 44.40%
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) - 40.05% - Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaptrio (One Battle After Another) - 95.76%
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) - 94.85%
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) - 89.08%
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) - 81.09%
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) - 68.23%
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) - 27.32%
Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) - 10.59% - Best Supporting Actress:
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) - 90.59%
Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) - 83.53%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) - 77.99%
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) - 76.81%
Amy Madigan (Weapons) - 73.58%
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) - 26.42%
Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) - 16.71%
Regina Hall (One Battle After Another) - 10.50% - Best Supporting Actor:
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) - 95.05%
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) - 94.88%
Paul Mescal (Hamnet) - 92.71%
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another) - 86.06%
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) - 66.74%
Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) - 31.22%
Delroy Lindo (Sinners) - 10.06% - Best Adapted Screenplay:
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) - 96.03%
Maggie O'Farrell and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) - 95.98%
Will Tracy and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) - 79.11%
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi and Jahyee Lee (No Other Choice) - 66.91%
Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man) - 51.11%
Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein) - 44.92%
Cling Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams) - 42.56% - Best Original Screenplay:
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) - 96.74%
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (Sentimental Value) - 95.54%
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) - 93.18%
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) - 91.36%
Noah Baumback, Emily Mortimer (Jay Kelly) - 40.33%
Kleber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent) - 39.41%
Zach Cregger (Weapons) - 13.78% - Best Casting (new category):
Francine Maisler (Sinners) - 96.12%
Cassandra Kulukundis (One Battle After Another) - 95.93%
Nina Gold (Hamnet) - 85.97%
Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) - 75.66%
Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) - 53.48%
Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) - 38.91%
Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story) - 21.59% - Best Cinematography:
Autumn Durald Arkapaw (Sinners) - 94.84%
Michael Bauman (One Battle After Another) - 94.34%
Łukasz Żal (Hamnet) - 90.03%
Dan Laustsen (Frankenstein) - 85.62%
Adolpho Veloso (Train Dreams) - 62.28%
Darius Khondji (Marty Supreme) - 29.06% - Best Costume Design:
Kate Hawley (Frankenstein) - 96.68%
Paul Tazewell (Wicked: For Good) - 95.41%
Malgosia Turzanska (Hamnet) - 92.24%
Ruth E. Carter (Sinners) - 91.19%
Malgorzata Karpiuk (The Testament of Ann Lee) - 60.11%
Miyako Mellizzi (Marty Supreme) - 20.63%
Colleen Atwood and Christine Cantella (Kiss of the Spider Woman) - 11.77% - Best Film Editing:
Andy Jurgensen (One Battle After Another) - 95.92%
Michael P. Shawver (Sinners) - 93.94%
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) - 89.54%
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) - 84.83%
Stephen Mirrione (F1) - 67.02%
Olivier Bugge Coutté (Sentimental Value) - 21.66% - Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Frankenstein - 96.64%
Wicked: For Good - 94.01%
Sinners - 90.14%
The Smashing Machine - 78.66%
Bugonia - 48.68%
Weapons - 48.46%
28 Years Later - 17.14% - Best Production Design:
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau (Frankenstein) - 96.25%
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales (Wicked: For Good) - 93.13%
Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne (Sinners) - 92.96%
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton (Hamnet) - 89.78%
Dylan Cole and Ben Procter (Avatar: Fire and Ash) - 62.20%
Jack Fisk (Marty Supreme) - 24.18%
Florencia Martin (One Battle After Another) - 10.50% - Best Original Song:
No polling data yet. Likely players to watch: 'Clothed by the Sun' by Daniel Blumberg (The Testament of Ann Lee); 'Dream As One' (Avatar: Fire and Ash); 'Dear Me' by Diane Warren (Diane Warren: Relentless); 'Golden' by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick (KPop Demon Hunters); 'I Lied to You' by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq (Sinners); 'Last Time (I Seen The Sun)' by Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith (Sinners); 'No Place Like Home' (Wicked: For Good); 'The Girl in the Bubble' (Wicked: For Good); 'Train Dreams' (Train Dreams). - Best Score:
Ludwig Göransson (Sinners) - 95.99%
Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another) - 94.23%
Max Richter (Hamnet) - 89.84%
Alexandre Desplat (Frankenstein) - 85.99%
Daniel Lopatin (Marty Supreme) - 45.60%
John Powell and Stephen Schwartz (Wicked: For Good) - 25.93%
Jerskin Fendrix (Bugonia) - 11.32% - Best Sound:
Sinners - 95.13%
F1 - 93.94%
One Battle After Another - 89.86%
Avatar: Fire and Ash - 84.53%
Wicked: For Good - 65.04%
Frankenstein - 27.31% - Best Visual Effects:
Avatar: Fire and Ash - 95.06%
F1 - 88.37%
Superman - 85.70%
Wicked: For Good - 77.07%
Frankenstein - 76.96%
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning - 19.35%
The Fantastic Four: First Steps - 17.82%
Sinners - 12.03% - Best Animated Feature:
Zootopia 2 - 96.65%
KPop Demon Hunters - 96.48%
Arco - 92.80%
Elio - 74.99%
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain - 59.04%
Scarlet - 40.68% - Best International Film:
Sentimental Value - 96.51%
The Secret Agent - 96.12%
It Was Just an Accident - 96.07%
No Other Choice - 91.14%
The Voice of Hind Rajab - 55.57%
Sirât - 30.91%
The quick read: Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Hamnet are acting like Best Picture locks with solid director and screenplay heat to back it up. Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good look like craft-category magnets. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the effects frontrunner until proven otherwise. And Zootopia 2 versus KPop Demon Hunters feels like the animated showdown. As always, these are temperature checks, not gospel. I will update as the race shifts and Original Song firm ups.