Leonardo DiCaprio’s Golden Globes Surge Could Turbocharge—or Torpedo—Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar Bid
Leonardo DiCaprio roars into the 2026 awards season as One Battle After Another racks up nine Golden Globe nominations, jolting the Best Actor race and setting up a heavyweight showdown with Timothée Chalamet, who also scored for Marty Supreme months ahead of the Oscars.
We finally have a real Best Actor race, and it is not subtle: Timothee Chalamet vs. Leonardo DiCaprio, with months to go and plenty of oxygen for both.
Where the race sits right now
Leonardo DiCaprio arrived at the 2026 season like a sledgehammer. One Battle After Another scored nine Golden Globe nominations, instantly reshuffling the Best Actor chatter. Timothee Chalamet is not exactly trailing, though: he landed a Globe nod for Marty Supreme, and prediction market Kalshi currently gives him the edge for the Oscar at 38% to DiCaprio’s 29%.
Everyone else in the mix: Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, and Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. They are still in the conversation, but most of the heat is clustering around the two headliners.
Why Marty Supreme jumped to the front
Chalamet has been playing the long game since 2017, picking roles that build credibility instead of comfort. Marty Supreme is the payoff. It is an A24 film directed by Josh Safdie that deliberately skipped the usual fall-festival victory lap, which made people wonder if awards traction was even the plan.
Then it popped up as a surprise screening at the New York Film Festival on October 6, and when the review embargo lifted on December 1, the conversation instantly shifted. The movie was suddenly a Best Picture threat and, more specifically, a showcase for Chalamet as real-life table tennis showman Marty Reisman. Critics locked onto the performance, FandomWire’s Matt Hambidg slapped it with a 9/10, and the Rotten Tomatoes score settled at 96%.
Release timing note: Marty Supreme hits theaters on December 25, 2025. The run-up is perfectly positioned for voters who like to check the boxes late.
Why One Battle After Another will not go quietly
DiCaprio is riding a different kind of wave. One Battle After Another is a Paul Thomas Anderson dark comedy, and it is one of those across-the-ballot contenders that makes awards voters feel safe saying yes. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 95%, and it is already in theaters, which helps when everyone is cramming screenings before year-end ballots.
Most importantly, it is everywhere at the Globes: nine nominations. That level of saturation creates momentum even if DiCaprio himself is not the singular talking point the way Chalamet is for Marty Supreme. It is the veteran frontrunner vibe, and institutions respond to that.
Golden Globes snapshot
Nominations landed December 8; winners get called on January 11, which is basically the green flag before Oscar voting accelerates. Both films are in Best Film Musical or Comedy, and Chalamet and DiCaprio are head-to-head in the Best Male Actor Musical or Comedy lineup.
- Best Film Drama: Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
- Best Film Musical or Comedy: Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another
- Best Non-English Film: It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Voice of Hind Rajab
- Best Animated Film: Arco, Demon Slayer Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie, Zootopia 2
- Best Male Actor Drama: Joel Edgerton, Oscar Isaac, Dwayne Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, Wagner Moura, Jeremy Allen White
- Best Male Actor Musical or Comedy: Timothee Chalamet, George Clooney, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Lee Byung-Hun, Jesse Plemons
- Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Jafar Panahi, Joachim Trier, Chloe Zhao
- Best Screenplay: Anderson; Bronstein and Safdie; Coogler; Panahi; Vogt and Trier; Zhao and O'Farrell
The tension under the headlines
Here is the dynamic in plain terms. Actor-driven narratives tend to win hearts when the timing is right. Chalamet has that singular focus working in his favor, and the critical consensus is unusually aligned. On the other side, One Battle After Another has blanket support across categories, and that breadth can turn into hardware if it converts nominations into actual wins at the Globes.
Translation: if Marty Supreme keeps its clarity and keeps stacking peak reviews, the Best Actor race could tip fast. If PTA’s movie takes home a couple of Globes, institutional momentum tilts back to DiCaprio. For now, the board says Chalamet by a hair, and DiCaprio breathing down his neck.