Can Timothée Chalamet’s Marty Supreme Sweep the Oscars? Every Potential Win, Ranked

Timothee Chalamet is back in the Christmas slot with Marty Supreme, and the early noise is loud. We have a trailer, a release date, and a lot of people calling it his next awards juggernaut. It looks slick, tense, emotional, and very much like a Josh Safdie movie — which is to say: sweaty, relentless, and hard to shake.

Quick snapshot: this is an A24 release directed by Josh Safdie, co-written and co-edited with longtime collaborator Ronald Bronstein, shot by Darius Khondji, scored by Daniel Lopatin, and styled by costume designer Miyako Bellizzi. The cast? Timothee Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A'zion, and Kevin O'Leary. Runtime clocks in at 2h 29m. IMDb currently lists a 7.4/10, which will almost certainly bounce around once the movie actually opens. It hits theaters December 25, 2025, lining it up squarely for the 2026 Oscars conversation.

What the awards buzz is actually saying

The trailer sells a movie that mixes raw realism with big, moody visuals — classic Safdie energy, boosted by Khondji’s eye and Lopatin’s pulse. Trades have already put the film on several 'keep an eye on this' lists. And yes, people are throwing around the phrase 'Oscar bait.' In this case, they mean that in a good way.

Ranking Marty Supreme's best Oscar shots (from most likely to least)

1. Original Screenplay — The script by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie is already getting singled out by awards handicappers as a top contender. The pitch is simple: fast, human, and emotionally volatile, without sanding off the edges. In a field that may include Sentimental Value, Weapons, and F1, this one reads as the most lived-in and risky. If there’s one category where Marty Supreme feels built to win, it’s here.
2. Original Score — Daniel Lopatin (yep, back from Uncut Gems) is reportedly delivering one of those scores that doesn’t just accompany the movie — it throttles it forward. Against heavyweights like Ludwig Goransson (Sinners) and Max Richter (Hamnet), Lopatin’s moody, electronic churn stands out as the freshest play: nervy, melodic, and story-first.
3. Film Editing — Safdie and Bronstein cutting their own film gives the movie a single, relentless heartbeat. Awards history tends to smile on director-editors when the rhythm is unmistakable — think Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, or more recently the way Sean Baker’s Anora grabbed attention for its precision. With rivals like Hamnet and One Battle After Another looming, Marty Supreme still feels like the one built out of pure momentum and anxiety.
4. Cinematography — Darius Khondji shot this and, curveball, he also shot Robert Pattinson’s Mickey 17, so he may end up competing with himself. Add studio muscle behind Hamnet, F1, and Sinners, and this category gets crowded fast. The edge for Marty Supreme is the Safdie-Khondji blend of grit and beauty — not glossy, but undeniably cinematic. The trailer already shows frames that feel alive and reactive rather than posed.
5. Costume Design — Miyako Bellizzi’s work is grounded in reality — cool, worn-in, and character-first. While contenders like Wicked: For Good and Frankenstein will go maximal with fantasy and period flourishes, Marty Supreme plays the stealth game: clothes that tell you exactly who these people are without waving for attention. That quiet precision can absolutely steal votes.
6. Best Actor — Chalamet is apparently in full go-for-broke mode here, and the chatter says it could be his best performance to date. The snag is the field. He’s circling a lineup that (reportedly) includes his own mentor Leonardo DiCaprio, plus Daniel Day-Lewis, Denzel Washington, Ethan Hawke, and Cillian Murphy — a lot of legends with deep Academy goodwill. He’s in the fight, but it’s a heavyweight bracket.
7. Best Director — Josh Safdie’s style is bold, chaotic, and deeply human — which fans love, but the Directors branch can tilt toward the grand and the operatic. With names like Paul Thomas Anderson, Chloe Zhao, Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Yorgos Lanthimos, and Park Chan-wook potentially in the mix, Safdie will be pushing through a wall of brand-name auteur power. Not impossible, just crowded.
8. Best Picture — The toughest climb. A24 has pulled this off before, but the 2026 slate looks stuffed: One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, Avatar: Fire and Ash, The Life of Chuck — the kind of big, sweeping contenders that tend to dominate this category. Marty Supreme reads smaller and more personal. That can absolutely win, but it usually takes a surge of full-season passion.

One more thing that could tip the scales

Darius Khondji shooting both this and Mickey 17 is a quirky, very awards-season kind of wrinkle; he could end up splitting his own vote. And if the movie plays in theaters the way the trailer plays online — all propulsion, no air — expect editing and score to become the narrative drivers through the guilds.

The bottom line

Marty Supreme looks like the real deal: Safdie’s toughest, most polished work; Chalamet in a pressure-cooker role; and a craft team that’s perfectly in sync. Screenplay feels like the best bet, with score and editing not far behind. Everything else depends on how noisy the season gets once the heavy hitters start screening.

Where do you have it winning? Tell me your category picks. Marty Supreme opens in theaters December 25, 2025.