Avatar: Fire and Ash Ignites Global Box Office With $43.1M Across 43 Markets, Scores $12M in Early U.S. Thursday Previews

James Cameron is back in your multiplex, and Pandora is open for business again. After The Way of Water shrugged off that long gap and swam to $2.32 billion worldwide, Avatar: Fire and Ash is rolling out with early numbers that say the blue folks are still a draw. Temper expectations on the opening weekend, though, and remember who you are dealing with.

By the numbers (so far)

• $43.1 million from early Thursday previews across 43 international markets, per Variety
• $12 million from domestic Thursday previews
• International opening weekend is currently estimated between $250 million and $275 million
• Global launch projection lands between $340 million and $365 million
• Industry expectations have the domestic opening weekend closer to around $100 million, not matching The Way of Water's $134 million debut three years ago

What that actually means

On paper, a roughly $100 million domestic start might look soft next to The Way of Water, but the Avatar playbook has never been about the first three days. The first film snowballed off word of mouth and the novelty of modern 3D, turning December into a months-long cash machine. The sequel repeated the trick, bringing back 3D and mixing in high frame rate presentation — something Ang Lee had already kicked the tires on with Will Smith in Gemini Man — and legged out through the holidays. These new preview and projection numbers line up with how the last two started before their long runs, which is exactly where Cameron tends to win.

The vibe check

Our guy Chris Bumbray had a blast with Fire and Ash. He says the marathon runtime moves, the tech still makes you feel physically plugged into Pandora, and Cameron seems fully into it. There is even an Aliens nod involving Sigourney Weaver's Kiri that should get the crowd hooting. He also makes a point I agree with: Cameron keeping a tight lid on spinoffs has helped the mainline films feel like actual events rather than content drip.

"If there is an Avatar 4 and 5, I'll be there."

- Chris Bumbray

Big picture

Betting against Cameron is usually a losing hobby. Fire and Ash might not top The Way of Water out of the gate, but the holiday corridor is long, premium screens are plentiful, and this franchise historically builds over weeks. Whether it joins the first two on the all-timers list is the open question, but the early signs say the audience is still showing up.