Are Mid-Budget Movies Doomed? Steven Soderbergh Sounds the Alarm

Steven Soderbergh has never been precious about scale. The guy will swing from micro indies to Ocean-sized franchises, and he still waves the flag for those oddball, adult-aimed movies in the middle that the MCU era squeezed out of the multiplex. And right now, he is worried about that middle.

The mid-budget squeeze, in plain terms

Look at the top earners this year: only one of them was made for under $100 million - a title called 'Sinners'. Everything else is branded IP with giant checks attached because studios are confident they will make it back. That leaves the $30-60 million range - the movies for grownups that are not sequels, spinoffs, or capes - stranded in a bad spot.

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Soderbergh points to his own miss

Soderbergh brings receipts. He namechecks his recent thriller 'Black Bag' as a cautionary example: a roughly $50-60 million film that did not make its money back, even though he stands by the movie. The takeaway, at least from the studio side, is the scary one: if that can not recoup, maybe nothing in that middle lane can. That is the narrative he is pushing back against.

'This is the trick: Can you get people to leave the couch and go?... I’d be greatly encouraged if this works, because then people go, "We can make these."'

The timely test case: Aziz Ansari’s 'Good Fortune'

Soderbergh made those comments while chatting with Aziz Ansari for Interview Magazine, right as Ansari’s directorial debut 'Good Fortune' heads to theaters on October 17. The movie reportedly cost about $30 million - modest by studio standards - and it is staring down a tough opening, with expectations that it will struggle to clear $10 million its first weekend. The cast is not the issue: Ansari stars alongside Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. The question is whether audiences will show up for a non-franchise, mid-budget comedy in 2025.

Why this matters beyond one movie

Soderbergh’s larger point is about how the industry interprets results right now. If a mid-budget film hits, suddenly there is permission to make more. If it misses, it is treated as proof the entire lane is not viable. That is a lot of weight to hang on any single release, and he knows it firsthand after 'Black Bag' underperformed. His hope is simple: if 'Good Fortune' connects, it re-opens a door that has been inching shut.

Your turn

So what do you think is actually choking mid-budget films at the box office right now - studio habits or audience behavior? Or both?